Series Preview: Padres vs Dodgers
Tue, Jun 13, 2006
by Geoff Young
The team just up I-5 from San Diego is in first place, and I’m starting to have some concerns. Aside from the fact that the Dodgers easily have the best run differential in the NL West (+67, well ahead of second-place Arizona’s +25), what bothers me is that each time a hole opens, they are able to plug it from within. And when I say plug it, I mean plug it. This table should disturb anyone who is a fan of a rival team in the division:
| Name | Pos | Age | AB | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Martin | C | 23 | 109 | .294 | .371 | .505 |
| Andre Ethier | LF | 24 | 92 | .315 | .385 | .522 |
| Willy Aybar | 3B | 23 | 89 | .303 | .404 | .472 |
| Matt Kemp | RF | 21 | 41 | .366 | .400 | .829 |
| Stats courtesy of ESPN. | ||||||
This is a small sample, and guys haven’t had to make adjustments yet, so it’s possible that the league will catch up with them, but that is pretty darned impressive. First baseman James Loney (age 22) and infielder/outfielder Joel Guzman (age 21) have had cameos as well, and could contribute before the season is over. On the pitching side, the influx of youngsters isn’t quite so pronounced, with right-hander Jonathan Broxton (age 22) the only one making much of an impact.
Speaking of the pitching staff, what’s gotten into Brad Penny and Derek Lowe? Never mind that, what’s gotten into Aaron Sele? With 2 1/2 legitimate options in the rotation (Sele can’t keep this up), and Eric Gagne once again anchoring the bullpen, this is a pretty solid group. Gagne’s presence means the Dodgers no longer have to rely on Danys Baez for high-leverage innings, which is good for him and the club. And the emergence of Broxton and Japanese import Takashi Saito gives Los Angeles plenty of options to close out games.
On the offensive side, the Dodgers are crushing the ball (.282/.362/.443). We’ve already touched on the kids, but a couple of injury-plagued veterans, outfielder J.D. Drew (.295/.393/.520) and first baseman Nomar Garciaparra (.358/.420/.607), are playing as well as they ever have. Heck, even the ancient Kenny Lofton (.322/.378/.421) is contributing.
And two guys who were struggling earlier in the season have been coming on strong of late. Second baseman Jeff Kent (.256/.374/.423) is scheduled to come off the DL today, and although his overall numbers aren’t very Kent-like, know that he hit .338/.444/.622 in May before injuring his wrist. Likewise, shortstop Rafael Furcal (.252/.334/.339), the Dodgers’ key free agent acquisition this past winter, is finally starting to show why his employer shelled out big bucks to sign him.
The Matchups
Okay, that’s enough about the bad guys. I feel dirty writing so much about them.
- Tuesday, 7:05 p.m.: Chan Ho Park (3-3, 4.36 ERA) vs Aaron Sele (3-0, 2.33 ERA). Which recently ineffective veteran starter will turn into a pumpkin first?
- Wednesday, 7:05 p.m.: Mike Thompson (2-2, 4.67 ERA) vs Brad Penny (7-1, 2.34 ERA). A mismatch on paper, though as I like to say — because it sounds cute and folksy — that’d be a mighty big piece of paper.
- Thursday, 12:35 p.m.: Chris Young (6-3, 3.25 ERA) vs Brett Tomko (5-5, 5.20 ERA). I’ve become a much bigger fan of Tomko’s ever since he left the Padres. Also, did you know that Young is 6′10″?
One game that obviously favors the visitors, one that obviously favors the home team, and one that hangs in the balance. I’d guess that probably describes most series.
In Other News
According to the official web site, the Padres have signed first-round pick Matt Antonelli. Press release says he’ll be at tonight’s game against the Dodgers. Antonelli is the first player taken higher than round 7 (Craig Cooper, 1B, Notre Dame) to sign with the Pads, so hopefully some other names will start to fall now. If you’d like to keep track of who has signed, be sure to check out Baseball America’s 2006 Draft Database.
Get out to Petco Park if you can, otherwise hang out here and chat in the In-Game Discussions. We’ll laugh, we’ll cry, we’ll curse at Vinny Castilla for his complete lack of production and then hate ourselves because he seems like such a nice guy. But we’ll mean it because, really, he’s not doing anything. Ah, the fun we’ll have.
Go Padres!
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June 13, 2006 at 8:50 am
Geoff,
Thanks for the BA draft database link. Also, it looks like Gagne is going back on the DL, probably as soon as today with lingering pain in his elbow. Anyone else think that dude was on roids? He was too good, too fast, too big and it certainly couldn’t all have been talent. He’s Canadian for gosh sake!
June 13, 2006 at 9:40 am
hah I like that now cursing Vinny Castilla is a consistent thing. Also I want to mention that Castilla is okay but he’s doing better than Brian Lawrence who went down for the year.
Also want to mention on Jay Jaffe’s BP hit list he put up an interesting stat
A. Gonzalez .400/.444/.720
Rest of team .231/.288/.341
also said Chris Young with his triple had as many total bases as Mike Piazza and Khalil Greene
“More worrisome is staff ace Jake Peavy’s struggle in the wake of shoulder issues. ….you have to wonder whether he or the club are seeing the big picture by letting him pitch.”
link: http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=5189
June 13, 2006 at 10:06 am
I’m hearing Chad Billingsley will make his ML debut for the Dodgers in Thursday’s game.
June 13, 2006 at 10:06 am
That’s good news on Antonelli.
June 13, 2006 at 10:13 am
From Verducci at SI:
3. Third Base, San Diego Padres The franchise that once gave us Enzo Hernandez inexplicably continues to foist Vinny Castilla upon the world. Castilla is homerless against left-handers, walkless in June and hitless for the entire season with runners in scoring position and two outs. With Geoff Blum and Mark Bellhorn getting only limited playing time there, Padres third basemen were worst at the position in OBP, slugging, runs and home runs — without attempting a stolen base, either.
Solution: Blum and Bellhorn should get many of the at-bats that are going to Castilla, even with the sacrifice on defense. Eric Hinske and Tony Graffanino are not impact hitters, but they would be clear upgrades available on the trade market.
I’m not sure those solutions are any good but definitely better than Vinny. Still, got to wonder why Leone is not given a cup of coffee yet at 3B.
June 13, 2006 at 10:22 am
Oh, and I can’t believe that Graffanino is still getting mentioned in any article. Any chance the Padres can get Chad Tracy from the Snakes? What about the Mets? Do they have any 3B in AAA blocked by David Wright? If the Padres are not going to trade P-Mac, Ben Johnson, Jon Knotts, Jack Cust, Leone, Corey Smith, and so on for any useful parts for the ML team, what are they for?
June 13, 2006 at 10:35 am
McAnulty played 3B last night.. Leone would need to be added to the 40man roster which means someone woul dhave to be taken off… Tracy got a contract extension… The Mets have no good position prospects anymore past Milledge…
June 13, 2006 at 10:37 am
Didi…
I think we’d have a better chance of getting Wright from the Mets than Tracy from the D’backs (slim to none).
Secondly, Leone is one of those guys who plays AAA to give the rest of your prospects someone to play with (just like John Knott). Two guys I think deserve a shot because of their results are Jack Cust and P-Mac. P-Mac has a certain aggression at the plate that reminds me of Texiera (how the heck do you spell that dude’s name?), and that is completely lacking at the ML level. Taking walks is one think, but geez…when did BGiles become a singles hitter? It’s too bad he’s blocked by AGon, but he’s been playing some 3B, so….we’ll see.
June 13, 2006 at 10:39 am
ry…
Sure the mets have great prospects…they’re all just playing for Florida with all the Red Sox prospects.
June 13, 2006 at 11:33 am
Vinny’s D is keeping him in the starting lineup, and d and pitching are keeping us above 500 and in third just three games back despite t-ball level offense. So its a toss up, play Blum/Bellhorn, loose D, and maybe gain offense, -or- keep Vinny in place, keep the D, bat Vinny ninth. I say, if we drop below 500, Vinny takes a seat.
God I hate declining vets, Cameron, Giles, Klesko, Roberts, GY, Vinnny. But we do well with declining pitchers for some reason, CHP, Embry Hoffman, etc.
June 13, 2006 at 11:48 am
on the 3b front Edgardo Alfonzo was released again
June 13, 2006 at 12:15 pm
The good news: If performance is any indicator, Vinny Castilla is not on HGH.
June 13, 2006 at 12:32 pm
Another Padre minor leaguer — pitcher Jonathan Ellis — suspended for testing positive:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
June 13, 2006 at 1:48 pm
From BTB:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.c.....commenttop
check out the VORP for the Padres.
Fourth in defense by almost double compared to the offensive bats. I don’t know what the individuals’ defensive VORP are but I can’t imagine Vinny’s to be any higher than Bellhorn’s or Blum’s.
Vinny at 3B is not a great shake either. The DP he started at the Marlins’ game 2 was a bad call. Yes, he threw the runner at home plate (which was great), but the next ball he got to was not clean (nor easy) and his throw to second wasn’t in time to beat the runner at 1B (called out by the umpire). Also, I thought had his defense been better the single that Mike Jacobs hit could have been smothered for an infield kind that wouldn’t have scored the runner from 2B. He did hit a double but it wasn’t the booming kind just the one that was dribbling at the right location between the CF and RF to be a double.
I’m all in favor of losing a bit more glove work (not much, I think) in favor of sitting the first-pitch hacker and replacing him with a third-pitch or a four-pitch hacker who can boom a baseball for a double every now and then.
June 13, 2006 at 2:01 pm
Truth about 3b is: Castilla has been getting set out more and more. In June, for example, Castilla started 7 games @.231/.231/.423 while Bellhorn started 8 games @.059/.158/.059 and Blum 6 games @.077/.077/.077…
In May, though, Bellhorn and Blum were looking good. Bellhorn got 24 games @.213/.314/.443, blum had 19 Games @.450/.476/.625 and Vinnie got 19 games @.178/.231/.192.
It seems every time Bochy tries to replace Vinnie with the “hot bat”, said “hot bat” falls on his face. Bochy, working with the guys every day can see the improvement lately in Vinnie(he certainly seems to be squaring up the ball better lately) and his defense is consistently good.
I feel very certain that IF Blum or Bellhorn could/would put up some offensive numbers while subbing for Vinnie then Vinnie would be getting some splinters. But, they havent done that so I cant really fault Bochy for not sitting Vinnie down.
June 13, 2006 at 2:41 pm
What improvement in Vinny?
I have no faith in Blum, but Bellhorn will outproduce Castilla. He’s not a pretty player but he’ll work the count, draw some walks, have a much better OBP, and hit for comparable power.
It was encouraging to hear Towers say that he doesn’t see either Blum or Bellhorn as a starter and that they’re looking for a 3b. It better be a 3b who is under control for a few years, though.
June 13, 2006 at 3:38 pm
Ty Wigginton.
June 13, 2006 at 4:55 pm
Bellhorn will outproduce Castilla? You sound as if you are very sure of that. What do you base that assumption on? Certainly not on their past records.
I said that…BOCHY can see the improvement in Vinnie lately. He said so, several times. I just see him hitting the ball a lot harder than he was earlier(not saying a whole lot, but it is improvement for me)
June 13, 2006 at 5:17 pm
You take Castilla out of Coors Field, and Bellhorn has been more productive since 2002. You add in Castilla’s age and his terrible approach and it’s more certain. Take the bat speed away from a hacker and things get ugly quick.
Bellhorn’s outhit him this year despite sporadic playing time. OPS, EQA, batting average, OBP, RBI, whatever you want to use.
What Bochy says and what is actually happening aren’t necessarily the same. Bochy’s job is not to provide objective analysis to the media. He’s protecting his players, as he should.
Castilla has killed this team offensively. 193 EQA. That’s inhuman. -12.1 VORP. I don’t think I’ve seen a number that low less than halfway through the season. McAnulty has been more valuable offensively in 6 plate appearances.
June 14, 2006 at 11:32 am
Keith Law on Padres’ draft:
Although I criticized San Diego’s initial pick of Wake Forest third baseman Matt Antonelli, the Padres did recover nicely after that selection, going in the opposite direction with toolsy Tennessee outfielder Kyler Burke in the second round (although they’ll have to sign him away from a commitment to Vanderbilt), then adding four fifth-starter-but-maybe-more arms in the middle rounds: Alabama’s Wade LeBlanc, a statistical standout who doesn’t have the good curveball most scouts like to see in left-handed pitchers; Missouri’s Nate Culp, something of a poor man’s Wade LeBlanc; Central Florida’s Tim Bascom, who recovered from a 2005 knee injury to have an outstanding ‘06 season, recording ground balls on 70 percent of his field outs; and Fresno State’s Andy Underwood, a righty with good command and a good breaking ball but a fringe fastball. That’s a good depth draft, and in Burke they have one potential star.
?: Anybody knows what he said about the initial Padres’ pick of Antonelli? Liking Bascom more and more.