Comments on: Overcoming Mistakes of Reason

By: Brian

Brian — Wed, 21 Jun 2006 17:00:20 +0000

Geoff: To your point, “He seems like a good buy-low candidate, and in light of how little Tampa Bay was willing to accept for Joey Gathright, now might be the time to grab him.”

That’s a pretty good observation, honestly. Tampa likely will take below-value for Huff because of his contract, and with that said, take a look at Huff’s second-half splits. There is lots of talk about being upset over the possibility of trading Nady for a season’s rental of Cameron, but how would Padre fans feel about trading a lesser prospect (or prospects) for the kind of potential second halves Huff can throw up, plus a puncher’s chance at signing him long-term?

Best case scenario, you get Huff leading the charge to another playoff run (with some protection for Giles in the middle of the order), and worst case, you get just slightly better production than Vinny. I don’t think you really lose either way, depending on who goes back to Tampa.

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By: Geoff Young

Geoff Young — Wed, 21 Jun 2006 14:01:03 +0000

Great discussion, folks; I knew I could count on you! I’ll address a few points quickly here, and we’ll probably end up coming back to some of this stuff in a future post. There’s a lot more in the book that I’d like to discuss.

TF: The point about production going forward is a good one. That’s actually the reason I find Huff intriguing. He’s just 29 years old and he has a career line of .283/.340/.469. He seems like a good buy-low candidate, and in light of how little Tampa Bay was willing to accept for Joey Gathright, now might be the time to grab him.

LM: Great point about MLEs. Actually, those are translations of minor league stats to major league stats. They are as predictive of future big-league numbers as are current big-league numbers. In other words, the fact that a guy has an MLE of 850 OPS doesn’t mean that’s what he’ll hit in the majors, it means that’s what he would have hit there. Seems like splitting hairs, I know, but it’s like the difference between, e.g., Huff’s 853 OPS in 2004 vs his 749 OPS in 2005. In this case, his actual big-league numbers weren’t predictive of future production. The short answer is, I don’t think MLEs should be ignored, but neither should they be treated as gospel — they’re another tool for evaluation.

Steve, KRS1: I believe $7M option is correct. After seeing what a difference his play in CF has made, I’d be surprised if the Pads don’t pick him up for another year.

PF: I would do that deal in a heartbeat, but I’m not sure I see Florida dealing Cabrera for anything less than Peavy. Honestly my hope with Cabrera is that he doesn’t end up in the NL West.

Good stuff, as always.

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By: Peter Friberg

Peter Friberg — Wed, 21 Jun 2006 05:35:11 +0000

Miguel Cabrerra. MC for Carillo, Kottaras, & Headley

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By: hank

hank — Wed, 21 Jun 2006 00:35:21 +0000

It is impossible to debate a point when your point is constantly being distorted to fit someone else's justification. Regardless, I think that should Vinnie continue his ways, he would be sufficient to man 3b without replacement.

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By: Tom Waits

Tom Waits — Wed, 21 Jun 2006 00:24:04 +0000

What they do with Antonelli may depend on what Chase Headley does, even though that didn't work out so great last time they tried it by moving Nady and Gautreu to second base. They're both high OBP types without big power, but Antonelli is the better athlete. Headley would stay at third and Antonelli would shift to 2b or CF. Or they might just leave him at 3b and worry about it when they're both closer to the majors.

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By: anthony

anthony — Wed, 21 Jun 2006 00:12:02 +0000

What are the chances Antonelli stays at 3B? I think a high OBP, good fielding, athletic third baseman would be a nice fit in Petco. Granted we'd still need to find someone for the next year or two.

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By: Tom Waits

Tom Waits — Tue, 20 Jun 2006 23:45:25 +0000

More than a 275 OBP is hardly expensive. Vinny is still the worst offensive regular on this team and one of the worst in baseball. Kids making a prorated 330,000 would outhit him.

Castilla’s had an 800 OPS for 40 at-bats and now he’s an 800 OPS hitter? All right. We’ll just forget the months of April and May entirely. The games we lost then because of a sluggish offense don’t count. I wish it were that easy.

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By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 20 Jun 2006 22:56:24 +0000

3B scares me next year, they will not go out and sign anyone with talent and they have nothing to trade for a good young prospect.

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By: Didi

Didi — Tue, 20 Jun 2006 22:51:24 +0000

I think Cameron is worth signing for a couple of years max. I don’t think the Padres have any CF in the wing. Maybe a trade for Anthony Gwynn Jr. could be in the card?

Johnson should get a call up and depending on how he performs, could ended up with the LF starting job. Doc should be a backup, though. As he is much more valuable than EY is to the club as a backup/weekly starter. That would give the Padres Ben, Mike, Brian as OF with Bard/Bowen, Adrian, Josh, Khalil as IF with whoever 3B will be. I don’t feel that Bobby Hill is the answer there nor is he that young anymore. Wells is probably not ready for another season, at least should test AAA competition.

The Padres, however, should get a backup infielder that’s better than Blum to spare Khalil and Barfield. A legitimate PH a la Sweeney/Fick last season and a fourth OF. PMac, Cust, Leone may end up with the roles. Are they any good at being contact hitters with power?

I do not, however, want another tryout for veterans at the end of their careers. The best of these for the Padres was Rickey Henderson but there was and will be only one Rickey.

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By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 20 Jun 2006 22:39:57 +0000

Do you think the pads will pay cameron $7 Mil next year? I understand that the pads do not have great talen in thier system, that was not my question, it was do you think it would be better to see kids with some potential or vets who are giving it thier last shot before getting kicked out?

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