Comments on: Comps for Gonzalez http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html Blogging the San Diego Padres baseball club. Established 1997. Thu, 08 Jan 2009 15:36:37 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Geoff Young http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html/comment-page-1#comment-14366 Geoff Young Tue, 11 Apr 2006 14:07:15 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html#comment-14366 Tom: I'm not sure. Shandler's stuff is geared toward fantasy players so my suspicion is that projections are ballpark-adjusted, i.e., we might need to knock Gonzalez' numbers down a bit for Petco Park.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-14366">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Tom: I’m not sure. Shandler’s stuff is geared toward fantasy players so my suspicion is that projections are ballpark-adjusted, i.e., we might need to knock Gonzalez’ numbers down a bit for Petco Park.

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]]> By: Pat http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html/comment-page-1#comment-14365 Pat Tue, 11 Apr 2006 13:53:26 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html#comment-14365 Thanks Richard.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-14365">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Thanks Richard.

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]]> By: Richard http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html/comment-page-1#comment-14364 Richard Tue, 11 Apr 2006 06:49:56 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html#comment-14364 Straight from the PECOTA glossary: The Percentile Forecast is a representation of the player's expected performance in the upcoming season at various levels of probability. For example, if a pitcher's 75th percentile EqERA forecast is 3.50, this indicates that he has a 75% chance to post an EqERA of 3.50 or higher, and a 25% chance to post an EqERA lower than 3.50. Higher percentiles indicate more favorable outcomes. The Percentile Forecast is calibrated off two key statistics: EqR/27 (essentially the same as EqR) for hitters, and EqERA for pitchers. PECOTA runs a series of regressions within the set of comparable data in order to estimate how changes in peripheral statistics are related to changes in equivalent runs. For example, if it first estimates that Carl Crawford will produce 4.7 EqR/27 next year, it then tries to determine what home run total, walk total, and so on are most likely to be associated with a 4.7 EqR27/season. PECOTA then iterates this result to ensure that the peripheral statistics 'add up' to the right calibrating statistic (EqR/27 or EqERA). It is important to note that the Percentile Forecast is designed to work around the calibrating statistic only. A player's forecast is adjusted to the park and league context associated with the team listed at the top of the forecast page. Team dependant stats like Wins, RBIs, and BABIP account for the projected performance level of a player's teammates PECOTA forecasts playing time (plate appearances) in addition to a player's rate statistics. These forecasts are based on a player's previous record of performance, and the comparable player data, and do not incorporate any additional information about managerial decisions.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-14364">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Straight from the PECOTA glossary:

The Percentile Forecast is a representation of the player’s expected performance in the upcoming season at various levels of probability. For example, if a pitcher’s 75th percentile EqERA forecast is 3.50, this indicates that he has a 75% chance to post an EqERA of 3.50 or higher, and a 25% chance to post an EqERA lower than 3.50. Higher percentiles indicate more favorable outcomes.
The Percentile Forecast is calibrated off two key statistics: EqR/27 (essentially the same as EqR) for hitters, and EqERA for pitchers. PECOTA runs a series of regressions within the set of comparable data in order to estimate how changes in peripheral statistics are related to changes in equivalent runs. For example, if it first estimates that Carl Crawford will produce 4.7 EqR/27 next year, it then tries to determine what home run total, walk total, and so on are most likely to be associated with a 4.7 EqR27/season.

PECOTA then iterates this result to ensure that the peripheral statistics ‘add up’ to the right calibrating statistic (EqR/27 or EqERA). It is important to note that the Percentile Forecast is designed to work around the calibrating statistic only.

A player’s forecast is adjusted to the park and league context associated with the team listed at the top of the forecast page. Team dependant stats like Wins, RBIs, and BABIP account for the projected performance level of a player’s teammates
PECOTA forecasts playing time (plate appearances) in addition to a player’s rate statistics. These forecasts are based on a player’s previous record of performance, and the comparable player data, and do not incorporate any additional information about managerial decisions.

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]]> By: Ryguy http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html/comment-page-1#comment-14363 Ryguy Tue, 11 Apr 2006 03:18:06 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html#comment-14363 Anthony .. you know what else doesn't show up in the box score.. balls that Eric Young can't field that turn into doubles and that his lack of a throwing arm puts Khalil Greene the cutoff man about 250 feet away from home plate. I mean he's been a nice guy while he's here but I don't think the Padres should have roster space for EY once Cameron comes back.. that or they'll make the silly decision to send Ben Johnson down who they have given 0 playing time to.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-14363">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Anthony .. you know what else doesn’t show up in the box score.. balls that Eric Young can’t field that turn into doubles and that his lack of a throwing arm puts Khalil Greene the cutoff man about 250 feet away from home plate.

I mean he’s been a nice guy while he’s here but I don’t think the Padres should have roster space for EY once Cameron comes back.. that or they’ll make the silly decision to send Ben Johnson down who they have given 0 playing time to.

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]]> By: Steve http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html/comment-page-1#comment-14362 Steve Mon, 10 Apr 2006 23:18:23 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html#comment-14362 well thats mostly beccause runs scored for and against determines who wins, a guy who goes 0-4 at the plate with great leadership still doesn't help you score runs. Don't get me wrong I love EY and I think he is great for the padres, just as a bench player not a starter.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-14362">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> well thats mostly beccause runs scored for and against determines who wins, a guy who goes 0-4 at the plate with great leadership still doesn’t help you score runs. Don’t get me wrong I love EY and I think he is great for the padres, just as a bench player not a starter.

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]]> By: anthony http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html/comment-page-1#comment-14361 anthony Mon, 10 Apr 2006 23:04:12 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html#comment-14361 EY has veteran leadership and other qualities that don't show up in the box score. It's just too bad that what does show up in the box score is what counts, namely runs for and against.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-14361">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> EY has veteran leadership and other qualities that don’t show up in the box score. It’s just too bad that what does show up in the box score is what counts, namely runs for and against.

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]]> By: Didi http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html/comment-page-1#comment-14360 Didi Mon, 10 Apr 2006 22:30:27 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html#comment-14360 Just venting here. Q: Why is EY still playing LF? A: Ben Johnson is nursing his sore ankle. NO? Wait, why is he not starting then? What about Termel Sledge? Is he nursing his injury still?<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-14360">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Just venting here.
Q: Why is EY still playing LF?
A: Ben Johnson is nursing his sore ankle. NO? Wait, why is he not starting then? What about Termel Sledge? Is he nursing his injury still?

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]]> By: Pat http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html/comment-page-1#comment-14359 Pat Mon, 10 Apr 2006 22:06:59 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html#comment-14359 Richard, I've never understood the various PECOTA projections. Does the Weighted Mean translate to his most likely projection? What about the 90th Percentile, is that his upper end projection?<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-14359">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Richard, I’ve never understood the various PECOTA projections. Does the Weighted Mean translate to his most likely projection? What about the 90th Percentile, is that his upper end projection?

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]]> By: Richard http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html/comment-page-1#comment-14358 Richard Mon, 10 Apr 2006 21:45:33 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html#comment-14358 From his PECOTA Page: A-Gon's Equivalent line from last year: .307/.362/.494. His (Weighted Mean) projection for this year: .254/.313/.411 His 90th Percentile projection for this year: .284/.346/.485 His most comparable players: Ed Kranepool (1969), Mo Vaughn (1992), Jim Spencer (1971), Paul Konerko (2000) and Brant Colamarino (2005)<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-14358">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> From his PECOTA Page:

A-Gon’s Equivalent line from last year: .307/.362/.494.

His (Weighted Mean) projection for this year: .254/.313/.411
His 90th Percentile projection for this year: .284/.346/.485

His most comparable players:

Ed Kranepool (1969), Mo Vaughn (1992), Jim Spencer (1971), Paul Konerko (2000) and Brant Colamarino (2005)

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]]> By: Steve http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html/comment-page-1#comment-14357 Steve Mon, 10 Apr 2006 21:16:13 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/04/comps-for-gonzalez.html#comment-14357 to bad the beaver pitching hasn't been lights out, thats what the pads will end up needing this yearl.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-14357">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> to bad the beaver pitching hasn’t been lights out, thats what the pads will end up needing this yearl.

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