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Friday Links

Fri, Mar 10, 2006Ballhype: hype it up!
by Geoff Young

Happy Friday. You know the routine:

  • Padres Minor League report: March 5 (Padres.com). Top prospects Cesar Carrillo, Jered Wells, George Kottaras, and Sean Thompson figure to start the season at Double-A Mobile. Joining them will be former A’s and Rangers left-hander Mario Ramos. Quoth Grady Fuson: “He’s an intelligent guy who knows what he’s doing out there, with a good changeup to go with a breaking ball and fastball that goes from 85 to 89.” I saw Ramos pitch once when he was at Rice, and he looked like he had a clue. I also saw him flirt with a no-no at Sacramento a few years ago when he was in the Oakland organization. Nothing to get too excited about, but he is a guy with experience and could come in handy at some point.
  • Padres happy Linebrink has kept the faith (San Diego Union-Tribune). This piece is a bit fluffy, but I never get tired of the Scott Linebrink off waivers story. Note the indirect role former and current Padre Geoff Blum played in Linebrink coming to San Diego. Way to get sick, Blummer.
  • Smile and move on (HeraldNet). Mike Cameron talks about his collision at Petco Park last season, his subsequent recovery, and how thankful he is for the opportunity to play center field again.
  • Spring training stats are now available at Padres.com. Note Josh Barfield’s line of .571/.600/1.214 with 11 RBI over 4 games. Tiny sample, but damn!
  • Ducksnorts reader Didi tipped us off to this one in the comments: Rich Lederer at Baseball Analysts had an informative chat with the authors of the recently published The Book: Playing The Percentages in Baseball. Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Eric Van talk about sabermetrics — where it’s been, how it’s slowly gaining a degree of mainstream acceptance, and where it’s headed. But that’s a really trite synopsis. Seriously, go read the entire article. And if your interest is sufficiently piqued, check out Steve Lombardi’s review of The Book at NetShrine [tip o' the Ducksnorts cap to Baseball Musings].
  • Bonds The Cheater? The Baseball Crank has a few thoughts on the Barry Bonds situation. Be sure to check out the links to his previous posts on the subject as well as the ensuing discussion.
  • Ducksnorts reader LynchMob is in Peoria watching the Padres. He gave us the latest scoop in yesterday’s comments, including updates on Dewon Brazelton, Carrillo, Freddy Guzman, Chase Headley, and many others. Good stuff. If anyone else is out there, we’d love to hear from you as well.
  • David Wells withdraws trade request (WHDH-TV). Good. Nothing against the guy personally, but this story was getting old. Who needs the aggravation?

That’s all for now. Meetup at Tony Gwynn Stadium this Saturday (i.e., tomorrow). Details here. If you can’t make this one, we’ll catch you next time.

Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.

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11 Responses to “Friday Links”

  1. anthony Says:
    March 10, 2006 at 11:21 am Reply to this comment

    Nice little write up on Brazelton in the UT. I really hope both he and Burroughs can turn it around with their new teams.

    Current score: 0
  2. Geoff Young Says:
    March 10, 2006 at 12:35 pm Reply to this comment

    Thanks, Anthony. Here’s a link to the Brazelton article.

    Current score: 0
  3. LynchMob Says:
    March 11, 2006 at 4:29 pm Reply to this comment

    Here’s a few pics from my trip …

    1. Tagg Bozied, etc …

    http://photos1.blogger.com/blo.....@%20BP.jpg

    2. Cesar Carillo …

    http://photos1.blogger.com/blo.....Walter.jpg

    http://photos1.blogger.com/blo.....er%202.jpg

    3. WBC …

    http://photos1.blogger.com/blo.....%20WBC.jpg

    http://photos1.blogger.com/blo.....20Boys.jpg

    A fun trip … the 15-10 loss to Rangers yesterday (Friday) was not fun … it was a cold/windy day … LOTS of errors … Leone show’d his rough side booting a couple of nearly-routine balls … got to see Walter mash a ball on the RCF berm … Matt Bush didn’t show anything with bat or glove … but then again, neither did Mike Cameron … Ian Kinsler can mash … and I saw why the Rangers didn’t need Adrian Gonzalez, Jason Botts is a STUD (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/bottsja01.php) … Sledge look’d good hitting the ball, he smoked one into the RF corner that’d be a triple when his legs get healthy (he clearly wasn’t running 100%) …

    Current score: 0
  4. LynchMob Says:
    March 11, 2006 at 4:56 pm Reply to this comment

    I just followed the first link to padres.com (aka padres.mlb.com) … noticed they had video highlights for each spring game … with jerry/ted doing play-by-play … good stuff.

    Current score: 0
  5. LynchMob Says:
    March 11, 2006 at 5:32 pm Reply to this comment

    BP’s Team Health Report … http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=4840 … it ain’t pretty …

    Current score: 0
  6. LynchMob Says:
    March 11, 2006 at 6:24 pm Reply to this comment

    Here’s a summary of BP’s PECOTA view of farm systems … warning: this is pretty ugly for the Padres …

    Organization Ratings

    It’s a straightforward application of the individual player rankings to evaluate the relative strength of different farm systems. Here’s what we get by summing the ratings within each organization for all “true” (pre-MLB) prospects with a combined PECOTA peak score of 100 or higher.

    Best Farm Systems

    1. Dodgers 2820.0
    2. Indians 2608.7
    3. Angels 2280.6
    4. Marlins 2097.5
    5. Brewers 2008.7
    6. Twins 1970.7
    7. Diamondbacks 1873.0
    8. Devil Rays 1747.5
    9. Tigers 1674.7
    10. Pirates 1609.8
    11. Yankees 1580.7
    12. Rockies 1423.2
    13. A’s 1407.4
    14. Giants 1399.2
    15. Braves 1365.2
    16. Red Sox 1338.7
    17. Royals 1331.7
    18. Rangers 1321.6
    19. Mets 1225.2
    20. Mariners 1223.9
    21. Phillies 1212.6
    22. Nationals 1189.6
    23. Orioles 1180.6
    24. Cardinals 1152.7
    25. Cubs 1024.1
    26. Blue Jays 954.6
    27. Astros 784.6
    28. Padres 734.3
    29. White Sox 680.3
    30. Reds 653.3

    These numbers are really quite consistent with the BA organizational talent ratings, and the rest of the expert consensus on the depth of different systems. A lot of the noise cancels out when you’re dealing with entire systems, rather than individual prospects; PECOTA might like Andy LaRoche a bit less than BA and Joel Guzman a bit more, but either way it recognizes that the Dodgers are loaded. One exception is that pitching-rich organizations like the Red Sox and Cubs do notably poorer by PECOTA’s reckoning.

    We can also look at the 24-and-under talent within each organization, without regard to prospect status. For a number of reasons, this is probably the fairer way to do things.

    Best 24-and-Under Talent

    1. Devil Rays 3893.2
    2. Marlins 3601.1
    3. Dodgers 3554.5
    4. Angels 3503.3
    5. Braves 3362.5
    6. Mariners 3250.7
    7. Indians 3173.7
    8. Brewers 3100.2
    9. Twins 3098.8
    10. Royals 2979.1
    11. Diamondbacks 2606.1
    12. Mets 2582.5
    13. Tigers 2202.6
    14. A’s 2074.4
    15. Red Sox 1985.6
    16. Pirates 1938.7
    17. Cubs 1857.9
    18. Yankees 1857.7
    19. Rangers 1739.0
    20. Reds 1734.9
    21. Blue Jays 1695.1
    22. Phillies 1610.6
    23. Orioles 1530.9
    24. Cardinals 1518.9
    25. Nationals 1512.6
    26. Giants 1405.5
    27. Rockies 1360.2
    28. White Sox 1334.5
    29. Astros 1322.6
    30. Padres 914.0

    Don’t wait: book your tickets now for the 2012 Trans-Everglades Classic. Hurricane-safe lodging still available.

    Finally, we can disregard the age requirement entirely, to get a sense for present medium-to-long-term organizational health.

    Overall Talent Stock

    1. A’s 8015.3
    2. Dodgers 7609.6
    3. Angels 7515.5
    4. Indians 7488.5
    5. Twins 7275.6
    6. Yankees 7194.5
    7. Braves 7047.1
    8. Cardinals 7029.9
    9. Red Sox 6904.1
    10. Brewers 6670.8
    11. Devil Rays 6660.4
    12. Mets 6554.8
    13. Pirates 6544.0
    14. Phillies 6543.5
    15. Blue Jays 6525.1
    16. Mariners 6502.5
    17. Cubs 6420.5
    18. Diamondbacks 6390.0
    19. Rangers 6378.9
    20. Tigers 6322.0
    21. Reds 5969.9
    22. Rockies 5785.6
    23. Royals 5726.6
    24. Orioles 5623.3
    25. Astros 5475.3
    26. Marlins 5302.3
    27. White Sox 5278.6
    28. Giants 4873.8
    29. Nationals 4843.7
    30. Padres 4581.1

    Current score: 0
  7. Peter Friberg Says:
    March 12, 2006 at 2:15 pm Reply to this comment

    Anyone watching Japan v. USA on ESPN Deportes? Peavy gave up a lead-off HR to Ichiro then 2 more in the second. Had A-Rod been playing 3B instead of Chipper, it might be a closer score (3-1 after 4 innings). Peavy has settled down and has his typically sick stuff, he’s been pinched a bit though…

    Current score: 0
  8. Anthony Says:
    March 12, 2006 at 3:23 pm Reply to this comment

    Apparently Time Warner doesn’t carry ESPN Deportes. Particularly galling because I work for Cox and get all the channels for free. Too bad Kearney Mesa is a TW area.

    Is the Padres farm system really that bad? Worst in baseball? How does a lowish revenue team let their player development fall so far? At least they seem to recognize it and have been taking steps to remedy the situation.

    Current score: 0
  9. LynchMob Says:
    March 12, 2006 at 10:45 pm Reply to this comment

    Anthony - I agree that the Padres have recognized their relatively poor farm system and are taking steps to improve it … 2005 draft was step in right direction … assuming Headley and Hundley take steps forward in their development this season … there’s plenty more steps to be taken …

    Current score: 0
  10. Nick G. Says:
    March 13, 2006 at 5:06 am Reply to this comment

    Hey guys — check this out from the Boston Herald. Apparently, with the retirement of ex-Padre John Flaherty, the Sox are interested in re-aquiring Doug Mirabelli.

    http://redsox.bostonherald.com.....eid=130265

    Current score: 0
  11. LynchMob Says:
    March 13, 2006 at 8:16 am Reply to this comment

    GY - you gonna startup a Ducksnorts group at Yahoo for the March Madness?

    Current score: 0