Wednesday Links
Wed, Feb 15, 2006
by Geoff Young
I hate to give you just links with no commentary, but that’s all I have time for today. Enjoy!
- Scouting the Division: San Diego (Bad Altitude). I find the idea of a Rockies blogger talking smack about the Padres after their respective 2005 seasons somewhat amusing.
- Piazza signing motivates TC’s Mirabelli (Traverse City Record Eagle)
- Scouting Padres Prospect: Jon Knott (Scout.com)
- USD’s rise, rankings polls apart (U-T). In the wake of their three-game sweep of defending national champion Texas at home and two victories at UC Davis, the Toreros find themselves in uncharted territory, so to speak.
- Burroughs still a confident kid (Long Beach Press-Telegram)
- Tucker headed to White Sox (Sapulpa Daily Herald). Sapulpa, Oklahoma? Really. Anyway, former Padres farmhand Rusty Tucker has signed on with the World Series champs. Here’s hoping the hard-throwing left-hander can regain his command and have a big-league career.
- Lima, Mets agree to minor-league contract (ESPN). Remember that nasty little rumor from a few weeks ago that Lima was coming to San Diego? We can all breathe a sigh of relief.
- Three-and-Oh (Hardball Times). John Walsh takes a very thorough look at how hitters have fared on a 3-0 count over the years. Tip o’ the cap to Ducksnorts reader Didi for finding this one.
Tunes: Incubus, Cheb Mami, Underdog Project, Nick Drake, Heavy Vegetable, They Might Be Giants, Frank Black
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
February 15, 2006 at 8:35 am
Cheb Mami rules!
February 15, 2006 at 9:52 am
Re: Bad Altitude
Usually another team’s fan talking like that about the Padres would get me going, but I can’t find much fault with his analysis.
We haven’t done “nothing” to bolster the offense; we’ve done “a little something” to bolster the offense. The SP is bad and was bad last season. Our defense is better, though.
February 15, 2006 at 11:32 am
A dose of reality (or at least an opinion I respect) about Adrian Gonzalez … from Nate Silver @ BP …
Almost Prospects
Player WARP Upside Comb
Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI (26) 22.8 259.2 487.0
Chris Shelton, 1B, DET (26) 17.6 151.3 327.7
Daniel Johnson, 1B, OAK (26) 14.5 93.4 238.5
Bradley Eldred, 1B, PIT (25) 10.7 70.7 177.5
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, SDN (24) 11.0 58.8 169.1
Casey Kotchman, 1B, LAA (23) 11.7 50.7 167.8
… it scares me A LOT that Gonzalez is projected to perform below Brad Eldred in this metric-du-jour (for background on the metric, read this: http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=4750)
February 15, 2006 at 11:34 am
Thanks for the info, LM. One point to bear in mind about Eldred is that he possesses tremendous power, which can make up for a lot of other deficiencies. I like Gonzalez’ long-term chances better due to his broader base of skills.
February 15, 2006 at 7:23 pm
Anyone see Baseball America’s Positional Rankings? Barfield made it at #6 for 2B, but Kottaras & Carillo were ommitted. I don’t have a problem that Kottaras wasn’t in the top 5 catchers, but they also had “others to consider” sections and ommitted both Padres from their respective “others…” lists as well…
I think Carillo is pretty easily a top-20 minor league right-hander…
In one sense, keep under-estimating us while we keep winning divisions, in another sense, I’m sick of the disrespect.
February 15, 2006 at 7:28 pm
Q: Bryan Holland from Leesburg, Va. asks:
Where does Ceasar Carillo rank amongst your RHP? He is the Padres #1 prospect, but didn’t make your overall list?
A: John Manuel: Carillo just missed the “others” list, just a little hesitant about his ‘05 workload and his slender frame. It’s more a function of I didn’t ‘want to go too far over 20 RHPs, and he’s not far from the top 20. He also was a first-round pick this year, and the Padres’ NO. 1 as you said, so I felt he really can’t be called a “sleeper.”
Q: Mark from Irvine asks:
Where would George Kottaras rank if you had gone deeper with catchers?
A: John Manuel: He also just missed; I’m just not sure what to make of his defense, and defense is still the most important tool for a C. I’m not 100 percent convinced Kottaras will be average defensively or remain behind the plate with his somewhat slight frame.
February 16, 2006 at 10:46 am
Thanks Geoff.
BTW: Kenny Baugh out, Jason Anderson in.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn.....id=2332269
Pitchers and Catchers today.
YOOOHOOO!
February 16, 2006 at 5:37 pm
This is a little overwhelming, but sure to entertain the statheads among us for hours on end:
http://www.baseballgraphs.com/battedballs/SDP.html
via
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....ll-tables/
Oh, my!
February 16, 2006 at 6:19 pm
I’m not sure I’d heard that Jake’s gonna pitch for Team USA in the WBC … per BA …
Joining Clemens in Team USA’s four-man rotation will be a trio of young pitchers—Padres righty Jake Peavy, 24; Marlins lefthander Dontrelle Willis; 24; and Indians lefthander C.C. Sabathia, 25.
… I’m cool with that.
BTW, Sean Burrough’s is sickly delusional … he thinks he’s gonna hit 12-15 HRs this year and get 40 doubles! I’m embarassed to say I’m still rootin’ for him … and now that he’s said this, I’m even more embarassed … sigh …
February 16, 2006 at 7:33 pm
I think Sean got the short end of astronomical expectations in San Diego. There will be none of those in Tampa and I expect we just might see him finally start to approach his potential. If Crawford can hit 15 hrs in Tampa(he hit just 10 total in 4 years in the minors) then it is surely possible for Sean to hit 15.
I like the kid and hope he does well.
February 17, 2006 at 7:17 am
SI’s John Donovan is another on the Giants 2006 bandwagon:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
February 17, 2006 at 10:00 am
An update on Padres from a guy @ BP …
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=4772
… worth reading … it’s optimistic …
February 17, 2006 at 6:31 pm
GY … heads up! I’ve just posted this to the Ducksnorts2 Yahoo Fantasy Baseball League’s message board …
In the leagues “stat catagories”, it shows “HLD” … is that “HOLD”s??? What’s up with THAT???
Anyone else object?
It’s not even listed in the Yahoo pitching stats!
If the intent is to create some value in non-starting, non-closing pitchers, how about “G” = “Games Pitched”?
I say we’ve got to stop the madness that is the Hold stat … JOIN ME!
February 17, 2006 at 7:39 pm
Hey, I like the “HLD” stat and its a very valid
stat for fantasy baseball(imho)
with the player pool as small as it already is, we need additional players with value. Linebrink, for example, is good for some innings and strikeouts and even a good whip, but add the holds and he takes on new value.
February 18, 2006 at 12:17 am
Yeah, I always like using “hold” in Fantasy Baseball. My main problem with games pitched is that it can also reward guys who don’t come in with the game on the line.
February 20, 2006 at 8:22 am
From Buster Olney today:
David Wells showed up in Red Sox camp but is behind in his throwing program, so Boston kept him indoors — which makes me wonder, as someone who covered Wells on two different teams, about what kind of physical condition he is in. The reason why the Yankees moved quickly to trade Wells on the eve of the ‘99 camp for Roger Clemens is that they were concerned that Wells would show up big and out of shape, and that any chance of trading him would be damaged by his public appearance on a field. I don’t know what kind of shape Wells is in because I’m not there, but … I wonder.
There’s a link within that blog to an article on http://www.boston.com.
February 20, 2006 at 9:54 am
Mets blog has a pretty decent preview of the Padres:
http://www.mikesmets.com/2006/.....iew_s.html
February 20, 2006 at 12:07 pm
Interesting article on K’s with Johan and Jake.
http://baseballanalysts.com/ar....._to_me.php
February 20, 2006 at 12:12 pm
It’s official, Hensley is a reliever.
My optimistic personality says the Padres made this decision because they’re sure of getting Wells. My pessimistic personality says they’re stuck in 2001, the last time Park and Estes were any good.
February 20, 2006 at 1:03 pm
That’s just the start of the season.
The Padres will find out, hopefully, sooner than later, that Hensley will start.
Wells is in Boston for the season.
I don’t imagine spending that much money on him…and keeping Woody and Park and Estes.
February 20, 2006 at 1:24 pm
There’s a serious problem with that plan, Didi. A pitcher’s spring and in-season throwing programs are based on his role. When a player switches from relief to starting during the season, he has to get stretched out. That often means he’s unavailable for a week or more but not on the DL. So the poor planning hits you in two or three ways. You’ve had a worse pitcher in the rotation before the switch. Then you lose the reliver for more than 5 games, so you’re playing with 24. When the converted reliever does start, he’s usually got a low pitch count for the first few games, which lowers your chances of winning those games and the games around them since your pen is so tired.
If Hensley is a better starting pitcher than Woody, Park, and Estes, he should be preparing to start right now. 83 to 86 win teams should not be throwing away games.
February 20, 2006 at 2:54 pm
Another chance to see KT … courtesy of BP … http://www.baseballprospectus.com/events/ …
Spring Training Feed and Padres/Mariners Game with Kevin Towers and Bill Bavasi
Sunday, March 5, pre-game at 10 am, game at 1:05 pm
Peoria Stadium, Peoria, AZ
Come to sunny Arizona for a fun vacation weekend in the warm sun, and a day of baseball talk with two major league General Managers.
Join San Diego Padres GM Kevin Towers, Seattle Mariners GM Bill Bavasi and Baseball Prospectus authors Joe Sheehan and Jonah Keri for a day of baseball talk and a Padres-Mariners game in the warm Arizona sun. Festivities start at 10 a.m. with an open baseball forum covering the Padres, the Mariners and other baseball topics. Autographed copies of BP’s two new books Baseball Between the Numbers and Baseball Prospectus 2006 will be available for purchase. Attendees can then take in that day’s 1:05 p.m. game between the Padres and Mariners. Admission to the pre-game talk is free with the purchase of a game ticket, which will cost about $20.
To reserve your spot, RSVP to jonah_keri@baseballprospectus.com by NO LATER THAN MONDAY, FEB. 27. Please indicate in your email how many people are in your group. We’ll have a section of the ballpark reserved for attendees and will release the tickets for purchase once we have a final head count. We’ll see you there!
February 20, 2006 at 2:58 pm
Can BP staffers and Bavasi be in the same room without ripping a hole in the fabric of the universe? Can two such totally different entities coexist in a finite bubble of time and space?
February 21, 2006 at 5:51 am
The Sox are going to try to wait for Wells to get into pitching shape, and then deal him. After a winter of beer and yodels, I’m sure Wells needs a few weeks . . .