Ducksnorts at the Ballpark
Wed, Feb 8, 2006
by Geoff Young
So, we’ve been kicking this idea around a while and it’s time to make our move. Weekend of March 11-12. Either Saturday evening (6 p.m.) at Tony Gwynn Stadium or Sunday afternoon (1 p.m.) at Cunningham Stadium. Any preferences?
[Update 13 Feb 06, 8:00 a.m.: Looks like it'll be Saturday, March 11, at SDSU. I'd still like to get a bunch of us out to Cunningham Stadium at some point. Maybe we can make plans at the game.]
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February 8, 2006 at 12:22 pm
Not that it matters to me (up here in cloudy/rainy Oregon :-), but here’s a link to the Torero’s schedule showing the games vs San Diego State on the 11th (@ SDS) and 12th (@ USD) … http://usdtoreros.collegesport.....sched.html … any chance someone can bring along a wireless LAN’d laptop and lead an IGD?
February 8, 2006 at 12:31 pm
Also …
USD is ranked No. 13 in the Collegiate Baseball top-25 poll
http://usdtoreros.collegesport.....06aak.html
February 8, 2006 at 12:33 pm
Thanks, LM. I should have provided those links. A live IGD. Hmmm, I’ll have to look into that…
February 8, 2006 at 4:37 pm
I’d prefer Saturday evening. Glad you guys listed the fields as I thought both games were at USD. Looking forward to meeting you’se guys.
February 8, 2006 at 4:43 pm
PECOTA article on projecting prospects. Didn’t read all of it, but I took a look at the catcher projections at the bottom. Kottarras does make the list, but just barely.
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=4750
February 8, 2006 at 6:12 pm
Here’s a look at the Padres … http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/.....ry/9214155 … nothing new/surprising … seems like Cameron ought to be higher in the lineup … I’m glad he listed Guzman, I still think (hope?) he can/will take Roberts spot in LF and lead-off by the All-Star break.
February 9, 2006 at 9:58 am
I would prefer SDSU but thats mostly because im an alum
February 9, 2006 at 10:20 am
LM,
I’ve got more hope that Ben Johnson takes that OF spot than Guzman. Yes, w/o Roberts or Guzman in the lineup, the Padres lack a traditional leadoff hitter - but I don’t think that’s a big issue. I could see Cameron or even Barfield in that spot if need be, I guess.
Scary to me was Bochy telling the North County Times that the rotation was tentatively Peavy, Estes, Young, Williams, and Park. Here’s the link:
http://www.nctimes.com/article.....191405.txt
Now, I know the jobs are the veterans to lose, and that spring training might see one of the kids force his way in, but whoever it was on this blog that’s been saying the problem to address in the offseason was NOT the offense, but the SP - hats off to you, ’cause, man, that is one U-G-L-Y projected rotation.
February 9, 2006 at 10:22 am
I’m in. I prefer daygame but night would be fine as well.
February 9, 2006 at 10:39 am
Pat - THANKS for that link to BP’s intro to 2006 PECOTA … that web page is free for all to see/read … I *HIGHLY* recommend it.
dprat - agree 100% that not having a “traditional leadoff hitter” is not a big issue … what you’re hearing from me is simply that I’m a fan of Freddie Guzman … I’ve seen him play at his peak a couple of times, and his speed is *ELECTRIC* … think Alan Wiggins speed (which is a notch below Vince Coleman speed, I’ll grant you) … and that’s just *FUN* to see … but I’ll be *very* happy if Ben Johnson *wins* that OF spot (as opposed to getting it by default because Roberts/Klesko/Guzman all suck) …
… also agree that if we have to watch Estes and Park 40% of the time, it’s gonna be a *LONG* season …
February 9, 2006 at 10:49 am
LynchMob
I think its going to be a long year pitching wise no matter what they do this year, it will either be struggling with vets past their prime (Woody, Park, Estes) or struggling with young players trying to find their way in the league (Stauffer, Baugh, Etherton, Brazelton, Andrade) I would personally rather see the latter because it will get sharper with time where the vets will only become dull.
I think the Blaw and Eaton moves were good moves but it left some holes in a pitching staff that was already falling apart last year.
February 9, 2006 at 12:20 pm
dprat: that is one tough starting pitching line to sell. Yup, long season coming…again.
OTOH: pitchers and catcher are reporting next week.
I wonder what the introductions would be like?
Backup catchers meet your All-Star starter.
Hmmm….old pitchers, have you met your Ace, Jake? Don’t teach him anything you know. And that goes double for you, Chan Ho.
February 9, 2006 at 12:21 pm
PECOTA projections suggest that the optimum rotation might be: Peavy, Carrillo, Young, Stauffer, and Williams, in that order. I’d be pretty happy if Carrillo was so impressive in the minors that it sorted itself out like that by the All-Star break.
February 9, 2006 at 12:29 pm
I’m a little nervous about rushing Carrillo to the bigs to fast, look at what happened with Edwin Jackson with the dodgers. I think the best approach would be let him stay in AAA till the Sept call ups and get him primed for 07.
February 9, 2006 at 4:53 pm
Hmmm, the impacting of “rush”ing players to the big leagues would be an interesting study … if you ever see such a study, please post a link … Edwin Jackson isn’t the only name that comes to mind when I think of “rush”ing … there’s David Clyde … how about Todd van Popple? … it’s never obvious (to me) if the problem is “rush”ing, or health, or just some aspect of talent (ex. physical, mental, …) …
February 9, 2006 at 4:58 pm
Good Point LM, Edwin Jackson was the only name that came to mind because he was the most resent, and like all the others he will soon become an after though. I think its maturity more than talent.
February 9, 2006 at 5:04 pm
Cheers, LM. I’m just trying to keep up with you in the posting useful links department.
Great discussion on the starting rotation. Not much to add here, but I agree with going young as soon as possible and letting those guys develop/gain experience rather than throwing away innings on guys who will do nothing for us after 2006.
February 9, 2006 at 5:10 pm
Ah, the classic management quandry … how much of “now” to trade-off for “the future” … which presumably will be better if more is traded-off now than later … spring is in the air!!!
February 9, 2006 at 5:34 pm
A worthwhile read on the Padres’ new part-time starting catcher: http://www.all-baseball.com/archives/021761.html
It contains this tasty tidbit: “…his career fielding percentage was .859, 36 points below the league standard. And, when they tried him in the outfield, he successfully corralled 10 balls, and booted nine.” Is that Mike P. they’re talking about? Read it and see.
February 9, 2006 at 5:39 pm
David Clyde was a horrible mistake. High school pitchers generally are less advanced than high school hitters, and there was additional pressure on Clyde because he was HS legend in Texas:
http://www.recordonline.com/ar.....secolu.htm
I think Ron Shandler has done some work on the short-term effects of having a pitcher skip Triple-A. I can’t remember his exact conclusions but generally he showed it isn’t a good idea.
I’m not too worried about Carrillo because he’s a pretty polished pitcher with college experience. That’s different than, say, Ollie Perez (or Peavy, who seems to be the exception that proves the rule).
February 9, 2006 at 5:44 pm
As for young pitchers, remember this name: Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners). Scary good at 19 last year. Turns 20 just after Opening Day. Only 84 IP but his splits were: vs. Left: .182 vs. Right: .224.
February 10, 2006 at 8:40 am
I guess my feelings are that the pads will either sink or swim with the vet’s this year so why bring up Carrillo early if the pads are way out of the running. Let him stay in AAA build a little more confidence, pull him up during sept call ups to give him a taste of the bigs (something to work for over the winter) and let him run wild in 07 as a very polished pitcher. Why take the risk of exposing him early and killing his confidence ::cough:: Sean Bouroughs ::cough:: if you don’t have to.
Now if the padres are in the hunt and a pitcher goes down and Carrillo is the best option in the minors then I would say pull him up early but other then that let him work all year in the minors make him earn the spot in the rotation the old fashion way.
February 10, 2006 at 10:54 am
It’s not just Carillo’s development that’s at risk from an early callup. Seattle lost Arod a full season before they might have because they brought him to the majors before he could make a meaningful contribution. If they hadn’t burned service time in 94 and 95 they would have delayed his free agency and lowered his arbitration cost while he was still a Mariner.
I’d like the team to start Carillo in Mobile, let him pitch a couple of months in the pitcher-friendly Southern League, then promote him to Portland if his performance warrants it. If he’s done really well and doesn’t have too many innings on his arm, call him up in September to show the love.
We shouldn’t be taking risks with the 2007 and later team because we failed to address the 2006 rotation all winter. No, Shawn Estes is not addressing the issue.
February 10, 2006 at 11:41 am
Here’s something that got my panties in a bunch. Tom Verducci’s SI article — 10 future CY Young winners.
No Jake Peavy. Chien Ming Wang from the Yanks makes the list as does Gustavo Chacin. ?????????
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
Re: the current discussion about being rushed to the bigs . .
Current Padre Dewon Brazelton is the poster boy for being rushed. The D Rays were so desparate for pitching that is ML debut was only a little more than a year after he was drafted.
February 10, 2006 at 11:45 am
OK, didn’t read the qualifier on that Verducci article . . . most important stat in breakout pitchers is wins.
February 10, 2006 at 12:04 pm
07 rotation
Peavy
Young
mid level FA?
Carrillo
Stauffer
Looks really good to me why skrew it up, we have time to burn in 06, call Stauffer at the allstar break and have them all preped and ready for 07, not to mention it would be really cheap.
February 10, 2006 at 1:11 pm
Agreed on giving Carrillo time to develop. But I do think that he would respond well if needed a little earlier than anticipated. OTOH, with guys like Stauffer and Hensley around, that shouldn’t happen.
February 10, 2006 at 1:35 pm
Carrillo is a good combination of polish and stuff. I was ecstatic he was there for us. He shouldn’t need a lot of minor league time, and if we need his help in a race (a real race, not the 6 games out on Labor Day but if we sweep SF and LA we can get right back in it race), by all means, bring him up.
I just don’t want to see him rushed because he’s better than Estes and Park and probably better than Woody. We did that to ourselves, and not only is Carrillo not going to fix it in 2006, bringing him up too soon will only hurt us when our team is (could be) good again.
February 10, 2006 at 3:09 pm
Not to get all mushy on everyone, but I just wanted to say a quick thanks to all for keeping the excellent discussion going despite my lack of recent posts. Life has been keeping me busy and probably will continue to do so for another week or two. After that, though, we’ll get back up to full speed. Thanks again. You guys rock!
February 10, 2006 at 3:14 pm
Cheers Geoff! It’s a testament to the community you’ve built that people keep coming and using this forum as a place to discuss the Padres, socialize, etc. even when you take a well deserved break.
February 10, 2006 at 3:16 pm
Corey Hart’s name came up in a BP article today. With the acquisition of Koskie, and Fielder at 1b, the Brewers don’t have a place for him. He’s got good, not great, minor league numbers. Good OBP, decent power. Turns 24 next month. RH.
http://tinyurl.com/b4zqs
Nobody from TJ would come see him, but he’s the kind of player you acquire cheaply, pay cheaply, and control for years. If Chase Headley shoots through the minors, you can just dump Hart without worrying about your investment.
February 10, 2006 at 6:38 pm
Nice idea, TW. Unfortunately Hart really cannot play third base. He’d be more of a roadblock for the Bozied/Knott set than anything else.
February 10, 2006 at 8:25 pm
Scouting reports on defense have a way of changing. Unnamed scouts said Chase Utley and Adam Kennedy couldn’t play 2b. Then they hit. Somehow their gloves got better.
I’d live with Hart and an 800 OPS for a couple of years if it meant not having to find another 3b after 2006 and not seeing a single start from Chan Ho Park, Shawn Estes, or Seth Etherton. But hey, why not trade a durable pitcher who’s better than his replacements for an aging 3b who Bowden couldn’t give away? In fact, why not make that trade the FIRST move of the offseason? The only thing that makes a bad decision more fun to pick apart is making that bad decision too soon.
February 11, 2006 at 1:17 am
Have you actually seen Hart at 3B? Think Dave Kingman/Mark McGwire. I’d rather have Nevin there.
February 11, 2006 at 8:19 pm
Every time I think I know what I’m talking about, good old Phentermine comes in with another astute post that forces me to rethink even my most basic presuppositions about the game of baseball. Sure, Geoff has fostered a good community here, but good old Phentermine is the heart and soul of Ducksnorts. Although casino online is no slouch himself.
February 12, 2006 at 9:30 pm
Went to Friarfest today and listened to Sandy Alderson in a Q&A. Four things came up.
1. Pads are still in negotiations with Astacio, with the understanding that they can’t sign him until May, since he turned down arbitration.
2. Reason for the Mirabelli/Loretta trade was because they were in need of a catcher and the only team willing to talk a Loretta trade was Boston. (Loretta was expendable, since Barfield appeared ready and, in Alderson’s experience, second base is one of the easiest positions to fill.)
3. He talked about his time frame to get the minors and the Dominican to the point he wants them to be. He said he didn’t have a specific time frame, but there were things in the works now to make improviements in those areas. He said any success in the Dominican would be better than they have now, since we have had no success to date and are taking steps to be successful in the DR. He said that there will be a manual in place with the organization’s philosophy by ST where all the coaches throughout the organization would be teaching players the same thing so that everyone in the organization knows what is expected. They are also developing a statistical matrix analysis to gauge improvement of players so that they can use definitive data to determine a player’s improvement.
4. In the future, the organization wants to make sure they don’t find themselves in the same position they were in this year when they had three of their most significant players coming up for free agency in the same year where it became necessary to prioritize who they want to try and keep.
February 12, 2006 at 10:41 pm
I refuse to believe that Boston was the ONLY team with interest in Loretta. That’s just absurd. We needed a catcher. Unfortunately, we got Doug Mirabello.
Glad to hear that we’re addressing the pitching situation by waiting for Astacio.
Anybody explode during Friarfest?
February 13, 2006 at 6:47 am
“He said that there will be a manual in place with the organization’s philosophy by ST where all the coaches throughout the organization would be teaching players the same thing so that everyone in the organization knows what is expected.”
How can you not have this in place? What does the organization tell them now? “OK, Coach, just throw a bag of balls and some bats out there and let them go play.” Didn’t Branch Rickey pioneer this sort of thing 50 or 60 years ago? Sheesh!
February 13, 2006 at 11:21 am
Agreed with Pat. How this comes to be the case with the Padres is absurd.
On Hart, no way. When he doesn’t hit, he’ll have no value for the Padres. And then, what? Plus, we got Corey Smith already.
I don’t understand the Astacio’s deal. Was he not signing because of the dollar amount or the organization? There is a chance that somebody decent is going to come out of ST to supplant the 4th/5th spot on the rotation and why would the Padres need Astacio then?
I’d rather have Stauffer for another go. Or Justin Germano. OH, wait, he’s with the Reds. Shoot!
February 13, 2006 at 12:37 pm
We’re not the only team that hasn’t had a consistent philosophy. Doesn’t excuse us, though. You’d think an organization supposedly committed to building from within would have put together those guideslines around 1999.
I’ve never seen Hart play in person, but it’s a risk I’d take. The difference between him and Corey Smith is that Hart actually has hit. Smith’s never had an 800 OPS in the minors, Hart’s done in four times, including at AAA as a 22 year old. I’d also say that when Vinny Castilla is on the DL, or not hitting, or not with the team in 2007, he’ll have no value for the Padres.
Astacio thought he’d get a better deal elsewhere, so he declined arbitration. It seems he was wrong. Astacio’s better than Estes or Park, so there’s a reason to grab him.
I expect the team wants to see Stauffer show something at Portland. He was so bad after he was demoted, he’s going to have to show them something. Either lights out in the spring, which is hard, or a couple of good months in AAA.