Alderson’s Plan
Tue, Feb 21, 2006
by Geoff Young
As anyone who has been paying attention is well aware, the Padres have made wholesale roster changes this winter. The question among many of the Friar faithful is, “To what effect?”
Shaun O’Neill at the North County Times attempts to put some of the pieces together. He suggests that CEO Sandy Alderson and company have a strategy that transcends the product we will see on the field in 2006.
O’Neill, citing the Padres’ awareness of their status as division champion by default, asserts that “change needed to be made, even if plugging one hole opened another.” Change for the sake of change isn’t always the best strategy, but there is a lot to be said for eschewing complacency in an organization that has been decidedly mediocre for much of its existence. As Rich Campbell at San Diego Spotlight notes, “A decade ago or three, we would have been told we had to sit through a 100 loss season for the ‘good of the franchise’.”
One thing is clear under Alderson’s regime: These are not your padres’ Padres.
O’Neill continues by pointing to the addition of veterans Vinny Castilla and Mike Piazza as recognition that the club cannot undergo a complete rebuilding project due to its promise to fans to remain competitive on moving into Petco Park. He identifies these two players as “short-term solutions” for an organization that “isn’t yet cranking out major-league-ready players with any consistency” (2005 first-rounder Cesar Carrillo may help change that real soon).
Although this latter realization might not be the most comforting thing to hear, it beats hearing that the folks in charge think the farm system is in great shape and doesn’t need improvement. The Padres front office appears to have gone through a pretty thorough and honest self-assessment in determining where the club is now and what steps it needs to take to get where it wants to go.
In other words, there is a plan.
More clues as to what that plan entails? Try this on for size:
It’s telling that the Padres traded several homegrown players… Alderson and the Padres will demand more than producing players; they want to develop impact players.
Proof is in the pudding, of course, but it’s encouraging to know that the current regime doesn’t appear to have much use for mediocrity. O’Neill also notes that the Padres are in the process of “rewriting their organizational manual” and mentions the club’s increased commitment to finding and developing talent in the Dominican Republic.
The Padres have posted back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 1991-1992, and yet nobody is satisified. The stakes have been raised. Although the specific moves made this winter may not be enough to keep the Padres on top in the NL West, they do demonstrate a rejection of complacency in the face of moderate success.
In other words, good is no longer good enough.
The team remains hamstrung by some terrible contracts, but those all come off the books after 2006. Next winter, the Padres will be in position to spend money on free agents (not carelessly; unlike some organizations with deeper pockets, they still cannot afford to make stupid mistakes). And, of course, they’ll have had another draft under Grady Fuson.
Is any of this a guarantee for future success? Absolutely not. But it’s a strategy that at least has a chance. And once you give yourself a chance, anything can happen.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
February 21, 2006 at 7:13 am
Mike Piazza was nothing short of a horrible signing by the Padres this offseason.
San Diego is laden with young pitching. Young pitching needs a strong, steady hand behind the plate. Young pitchers require a catcher who strengths are, first and foremost, the ability to call a game, to steady a young hurler, to keep opposing runners hugging those bases; in short, to be a field general.
Piazza is a stick, and an aging, well-past-his-prime stick at that.
Defense? Piazza has always been a horrendous defensive catcher. Beginning with those historically strong staffs on the Dodgers and later with a more volatile, overpaid mix in New York, Piazza’s pitchers have always been more effective with him out of the lineup. Runners take liberties with Piazza. They always have. They always will. Last year, the opposition robbed Piazza and his club blind, deaf, and dumb on the basepaths.
Piazza is a designated hitter. Piazza always was a designated hitter. He’s a fine hitter. Period. But Piazza is simply a horrible defensive catcher.
Ramon Hernandez will be sorely missed in San Diego. The Padres should have signed Benji Molina, especially on the cheap. At least, Molina has a plus-arm, the ability to call a game, and, as evidenced by his work with Erwin Santana and Felix Rodriguez, has proven that he can work with and develop young pitchers.
Mike Piazza, like Vinny Castilla, is an old, defensive liability and will only hurt the Padres this season and, by hampering the development of young pitchers, in the years to come.
February 21, 2006 at 7:49 am
Hernandez was already missed, even when he was in San Diego, as he played in less than two-thirds of his team’s games while he was here. I have no illusions about where Piazza is at in his career, but I can’t imagine him having nearly so profound an effect on the Padres’ pitchers one way or another. The only young pitchers he’ll be working with this year that aren’t already established at the big-league level are Chris Young and Clay Hensley, and I don’t expect Piazza will impact either’s development much.
I do agree that Molina would have been a good signing.
February 21, 2006 at 8:41 am
Laden with young pitching? Peavy and Young are young. Hensley’s young and being shunted to the bullpen. The rest of the staff are greybeards.
Piazza has always been able to call a game, block pitches, block the plate. He can’t throw. That’s only part of a catcher’s defense. You think Piazza might be able to pass on some tidbits on what he learned from catching Hershiesher, Astacio (when he was young), the Martinez brothers, the younger Nomo, the young Chan Ho, Todd Worrell, etc.?
February 21, 2006 at 8:42 am
Current photo#4 shows a potential omen for this coming season … http://sports.aol.com/didyousee … it’s not pretty
February 21, 2006 at 9:06 am
Tom Waits:
“Piazza has always been able to call a game, block pitches, block the plate.”
I totally agree. Let’s take a quick look at the staff’s Piazza has caught. Some of his toughest staffs were back in the mid 90’s with LA. Take ‘96, for instance: Chan Ho, Hideo Nomo, Pedro Astacio, Ismael Valdez. A very diverse group, and one that was pretty dominant (Wild Card team, as we all remember). In 2001, he caught the Mets World Series staff of Appier, Leiter, Traschel, and a very young Glendon Rusch. That staff was a totally over achieving and I think a catcher deserves at least partial credit for that. Piazza has worked just fine with young pitchers, old pitchers, righties, lefties, dominant ego-maniac pitchers (see: Pedro Martinez), and I cannot recollect any time any of his pitchers have had a bad thing to say about his role as a receiver. True, he does not throw out runners well, but guys like Lofton, Furcal, and Randy Winn are going to run on most catchers. We don’t have a division rife with stolen base threats like the Central division (in either league).
February 21, 2006 at 9:16 am
Another comment under the heading of “not sure why I care” … a Phil Nevin sighting in today’s article by Will Carroll @ BP …
It Happens Every Spring by Will Carroll
Everybody’s watching their weight these days, even me. Unlike last year, the early spring stories of players losing weight (Adrian Beltre down 15, Phil Nevin down 20, Armando Benitez down 20, Carlos Zambrano down 20) or putting it on (Andruw Jones up 20 and looking buff, Jack Wilson up 20 and looking more distant from an appendectomy, Ivan Rodriguez up 10 after last year’s “shrinking,” Cory Sullivan up 22) aren’t immediately generating steroid rumors. Last year’s inevitable mention of steroids hasn’t happened this year, the best sign that the new policy is working, at least from a public relations standpoint. We don’t know what weight gain or loss means in the long- or short-term, but we do know that players have long had dramatic swings on either side of the scale. It’s another fact that’s worth knowing, but hard to interpret without a lot more context.
February 21, 2006 at 10:01 am
Can never, ever forgive Hernandez for not blocking the plate against the Cardnals last year. Like you buddy not covering your back in a foxhole. Mike is what he is. But he blocks the plate.
Until I see the Padre farm system become the talk of baseball, any “plans” Sandy might have are peanuts shells in the right-field bleachers.
And signing all the grey beards this off season only clarifies my point.
But they did make changes after “winning” the NL West, which is a sign of something I guess.
February 21, 2006 at 10:06 am
Ramon gets a bum rap for not blocking the plate in the playoffs. The second time especially, when Nady’s throw was offline. That said, it wasn’t a strength, he didn’t throw out anybody, and he wasn’t durable.
A 2 million dollar deal that doesn’t block a prospect cannot be horrible.
February 21, 2006 at 10:29 am
SI’s preseason analysis of the Padres:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....adres.html
Nothing really new . . .
February 21, 2006 at 11:01 am
C’mon now Iced Coffee…don’t listen to the hype, look at the real numbers. Molina has been on a downward spiral defensivly for the past 3 seasons. His SB numbers against have risen, his rERA has continued to climb, and he cost more than twice what Piazza got.
Mike is a veteran with a decent stick (Still hit 19 bombs last year as a part timer) and a penchant for calling a game. No, he won’t throw out his grandmother, but by most accounts, SB’s are overrated anyway.
And throwing Vinny under the bus like that…his glove is the most valuable part of his game. His bat has slowed and we will never see the late 90’s numbers he produced in Colorado, but he is one of the better 3 baggers in the NL…tell me you wish for Sean “The Donkey” Burroughs at the hot corner.
This team was mediocre last year and needed some wholesale changes. Because of the Klesko and Chan Ho contracts, we are stymied this year…KT has done a good job at keeping us competitive for 2006, with an eye on wholesale improvement 2007-2010.
We will compete and then we can see a whole new product in the years to come. Gotta love it.
February 21, 2006 at 11:09 am
Don’t get me wrong, I jonesing bad for the season to start and looking forward to seeing how all the new guys shake out. I always avoid spring training like the bird flu, April seems a long way away.
Did they bring in the right-field fense yet?
Who is batting number 2 anyway?
February 21, 2006 at 11:54 am
PM: I believe the RF fence will be ready for the WBC championships next month. The #2 hole (and it will be a hole) is a huge question mark. I’m working on my BTF preview and every time I try to attack that part of this year’s team, I draw a blank. On the current roster, there are no good options.
February 21, 2006 at 1:26 pm
Geoff/Mike
Every thing I have seen has said Cameron will be in the #2 hole for the pads.
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd
But who knows after ST
February 21, 2006 at 4:04 pm
Cameron would be a terrible #2 hitter. He strikes out far too much. I’d hit him 5th.
If Greene were more patient, I think he’d be a quality #2 hitter: good speed, hits the ball hard with some pop. But he’s gotten less patient, so no go there.
If Klesko would start getting on base closer to his 2000-04 numbers, I think he’d be a better #2 hitter than Cameron. But that isn’t likely to happen.
Is this assuming that Dave Roberts will hit #1? Does Dave Roberts have any value in LF (now that we have a real CF)? Isn’t this the larger hole in the line-up, all things considered?
February 21, 2006 at 4:34 pm
There’s nobody on the team who has Loretta’s bat control. Instead of trying to fit a square peg into a round hole, we might want to have a 2 hitter who just gets on base. Cameron does an okay job with that, and he does have some speed. He’d break up the LH hitters.
If we break camp with Roberts, I’d go:
Roberts
Cameron
Giles
Piazza
Klesko
Cashstealer
Bellhorn
Greene
I don’t want Bellhorn over Barfield, but I ’spect that’s what happens.
Roberts offense last year wouldn’t have been bad in LF. Not great, but not bad. But it’s pretty fluky, he had his best season at 33. I’d rather have Sledge, but Sledge has never stolen a crucial base in the playoffs. That seems to carry a lot of weight.
February 21, 2006 at 10:00 pm
“Defense? Piazza has always been a horrendous defensive catcher. Beginning with those historically strong staffs on the Dodgers and later with a more volatile, overpaid mix in New York, Piazza’s pitchers have always been more effective with him out of the lineup.”
This is simply untrue. Pitchers on Piazza’s teams have consistently had lower ERAs with him behind the plate than with his backups. This is over a wide range of different pitchers (and different backup catchers, for that matter).
Piazza is horrible at controlling the running game. But he’s actually competent at the rest of the physical stuff (getting to popups, blocking pitches, handling bunts, etc.), and is by all accounts a good handler of pitchers and game-caller.
I’m a big skeptic of catchers’ ERA, but if you believe in it, the cold hard numbers say that his positives defensively outweight the horrible arm.
February 21, 2006 at 10:42 pm
The notion that “striking out too much” disqualifies someone at the #2 slot is among the most ignorant assumptions (and that’s what it is, an assumption) imaginable.
The worst thing a #2 hitter can do is ground into a double play. I’m reasonably sure that nobody has grounded into a DP while striking out. Not once in MLB history.
All #2 batters will make several hundred outs in a season. It’s nicer when they don’t make them two at a time.
February 22, 2006 at 4:48 am
Despite the Ks, I think I would hit Cameron #2. The guy is a veteran hitter with some speed, and would do a serviceable job behind Roberts.
Second in line would probably be Greene, b/c I think he could eventually develop into a decent #2 hitter. Like M Thompson said though, his patience is the key.
February 22, 2006 at 8:00 am
Lance, I can’t disagree with you more! I think the most ignorant assumption (and that’s what it is, an assumption) imaginable is that the primary skill to be a good #2 hitter is an ability to bunt!
Oh, wait … you said “among” … so I’m probably violently agree’ing with you instead … you did get me goin’!
But I’m also sure you’re expecting a rebut that “making two at a time” is not exactly the same thing as GIDP … a #2 hitter that K’s into a “strike ‘em out, throw ‘em out” double play isn’t helpful either … but you can’t really blame the #2 guy for a manager’s decision to hit&run …
February 22, 2006 at 11:07 am
Lance:
Is there some evidence to back up your rebuttal of my assertion that Cameron strikes out too much to be a viable #2 hitter?
Dave Roberts didn’t reach base at any better clip than either Klesko or Cameron, and last year he grounded into more double plays than either. Last year Cameron grounded into 5. Klesko grounded into 6 in many more ABs. Roberts grounded into 10.
By contrast, Klesko struck out 80 times in 443 ABs, while Cameron struck out 85 times in 308 ABs. If Cameron had as many ABs as Klesko, he would have totalled around 121 strike outs, or 36 more than Klesko. Which are more valuable, all 36 of those outs, or the 5-6 times either of them grounded into double plays?
On its face, I find it to be the double play argument that is an ignorant assumption.
February 22, 2006 at 11:43 am
Good discussion on strikeouts and double plays. This may be worthy of its own post. The real problem with the Padres offense is that basically you’ve got Giles and a boatload of #6 hitters. One thing I think we can all agree on is that under no circumstances should Castilla or Piazza bat #2.
February 22, 2006 at 12:04 pm
Can we agree on the criteria for a good #2 hitter?
Tradition says:
1. The ability to hit behind the runner. Everyone seems to agree this is what Loretta excelled at.
2. Good bunter. Gotta move that runner over.
3. Doesn’t strike out much. For all those hit and run plays.
Do we have anyone with those skills? Are they really the best skills for a #2 hitter anyway?
I’d be in favor of Cameron at #2. As stated above, he won’t kill you with double plays. Plus he’s fast so if he gets on after Roberts makes an out you still have a good chance to score. If they both get on you can do things like a double steal.
At least our worries about first base are over:
PEORIA, Ariz. – Ryan Klesko is confident his return to first base will be as smooth as Wally Joyner’s shaved head.
“My defense at first base is good,” Klesko said after reporting to the team’s training complex yesterday. “I’m not like the typical first baseman who doesn’t move well over there. Why do you think I get called the Pick Master?”
“They haven’t had anybody with the range I have there in a long time,” Klesko said. “Obviously Wally was a great first baseman. He could pick it. But he did not have the range I did.”
Note: this is from the UT, not The Onion.
February 22, 2006 at 12:22 pm
“Pick Master”? Oh, my. As for Klesko’s range, I actually wish he had less. Part of his problem in the past has been extreme overaggressiveness on balls hit between first and second base.
Range at 1B isn’t all that important. I’m much more interested in footwork and ability to receive throws from a variety of angles.
February 22, 2006 at 12:57 pm
Good post,Anthony
Saw that story earlier this morning and had to read RK’s quotes a couple of times. Especially the thing about him having more range than Joyner.
Klesko’s always good for some unintentional comedy.
February 22, 2006 at 1:13 pm
I’m hoping we’ll see some Pickmaster signs at Petco this year.
Seriously, I hope Klesko comes back strong now that he doesn’t have to play the outfield. He sounds happy to be back at first and it should be less of an injury risk, if only because he won’t have to worry about taking a fly ball off his noggin.
February 22, 2006 at 2:40 pm
Anyone ever listen to Trip Shakespeare?
http://www.tt.net/clean/hp89180.html
They had a song called “Toolmaster of Brainerd”:
http://fullbleed.net/ex-lionta.....01739.html
Maybe we could rework the lyrics a little so that it’s “Pickmaster of Petco”?
February 22, 2006 at 10:59 pm
Wow Iced, others mentioned it as well, but did you even read the article Geoff linked before posting yourself?
Pizzia and Castilla are both interesting cheap pieces that allow us to move forward, competitively, this year, without blocking guys who could help us long-term (Headley and Kottaras).
I love how things are shaping up under Alderson.
February 23, 2006 at 4:48 am
Anyone see the Cameron article in the Union Tribune. He’s one of my favorite players — I can’t wait to see the guy in a Pads uniform. You’ve got to love a guy that mentions Paul Blair, Gary Pettis & Devon White when talking about great outfielders.
I know he’s 33, but it’d be nice to have him for a few years.
February 23, 2006 at 4:53 am
Nice fluff article about Brian Sikorski. 93-95 mph fastball with an “OK” breaking ball according to Alderson.
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/.....p;c_id=mlb
February 23, 2006 at 11:37 am
I think Anthony pretty well highlighted what the “traditional” ideas of what a #2 hitter should be like, at least from a fan’s perspective. I’m not sure how that correlates with what Big League types think #2 hitter’s should be like, but I don’t think they are the skills one should necessarily be looking for in today’s game. As Anthony pointed out, “Are they really the best skills for a #2 hitter anyway?” I’d say no.
With a leadoff guy who can steal a lot of bags anyway, not so important to hit and run, which reduces the importance of two of the three criteria. I think most everyone who is aware of the analysis done on the importance of conserving outs is aware that the sacrifice bunt is something to be avoided like the plague, particularly at the top of the order.
So what do y’all think should be the criteria for a #2 nowadays? Personally, I’d like a good OBP more than anything, and then good extra base power, much like any other hitter.