Order Up Some Piazza?
Thu, Jan 26, 2006
by Geoff Young
Yeah, like that pun’s never been used. Anyway, folks are talking in the comments about the potential signing (NC Times) of Mike Piazza. The guys at Gaslamp Ball are talking about it, and since they stole (in the sense that I’m totally, totally kidding) my idea about the ballparks, I figure payback is due.
Whaddya think? How would Piazza fit in, and what would be a reasonable price for him? Frank Thomas just got signed on the cheap, so maybe, just maybe…
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January 26, 2006 at 8:38 am
2 million, with possible incentives, would be awesome.
My secretary assures me that 2 million would easily be made up with women wanting to go to games. And more women wanting to go to games benefits us all.
January 26, 2006 at 9:09 am
Piazza would be a solid addition to the lineup. It’s pretty apparent he’s not what he once was, but I figure he’d hit sixth, behind Cameron and RK. And he’d be a pretty good 6th place hitter, especially if he came with a reasonable pricetag.
Piazza isn’t that great defensively, but that’s what the Pads have Mirabelli for.
January 26, 2006 at 9:26 am
Alan Schwarz has an article that touches on Piazza at ESPN.com:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2305903
January 26, 2006 at 10:27 am
I heard Piazza is asking for $7-8 mill/year.
I’m not keen on that price tag. He’s a part-time player now especially on a NL team.
Sure would love to have him land a few balls on LF porch, though.
Plus he’ll probably be pretty pumped up going up against the Dodgers 19 games a year.
For the right price, sure. Then, again, the Padres still have to clear a roster spot for him. Do the Padres have an open spot in the roster? Maybe with the Wells trade there’ll be a place for Piazza.
January 26, 2006 at 10:30 am
It seems, as discussed previously, that Piazza signing with the Orioles is unlikely. Further evidence of this is in today’s rumor central on ESPN where the following is written, “With Ramon Hernandez on the roster, the O’s are planning on using Javy Lopez at first base, designated hitter and backup catcher…The O’s also have engaged in some trade talks about Lopez, but they haven’t found a suitable market for him and are hesitant to remove his bat from the middle of their lineup.”
So, we can safely remove Baltimore and Oakland from the list of Piazza suitors. That leaves the Angels, Blue Jays, Phillies, LA, and Padres as contenders. Toronto is tapped out in the cash department with the Burnett/ Ryan/ Overbay/ Glaus additions (see most recent salary dump: Koskie), the Angels are not particularly inclined (Unfortunately for Mike, as they seem to be the best fit for Piazza - AL, So.Cal, some games available behind the dish), Phillies only have a place for Piazza if Lieberthal falters (Howard will not be removed -even against lefties- in favor of Piazza). That leaves the Dodgers and the Pads. I like our chances given LA’s salary situation (tapped out), and their infatuation with their young catching group. The question is, will KT/Alderson/Moores be amenable to the $3 mil. it will probably take to outbid LA? We’ll see.
January 26, 2006 at 12:29 pm
Scratch the Dodgers from the list of Piazza suitors. They have just signed Pat Borders!
January 26, 2006 at 12:52 pm
Pat Borders? Isn’t he like 50?
There was a report on Rotoworld that Piazza offered his services to the Yankees for $2 million a year and they turned him down.
January 26, 2006 at 1:09 pm
Is mike still gay?
Ok, sorry bout that, doesn’t matter anyway, just kidding. Oh, come on now, of course I meant Mike Piazza, not Padre Mike.
Yes, agree with above, Mike P would put some extra butts in the seats. Ba ha ha ha.
But ain’t he an East Coast guy? SD is a long away from now hip Lower East Side, where I hear Mike lives.
I can see Boche’s head getting even bigger as he works the L-R matchups for the backstop position, game after game. How many catchers would that make now, 4-5?
January 26, 2006 at 1:49 pm
some barely interesting Piazza links only mildly related to baseball. Think of it as back story context for the discussion.
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/a.....heck1.html
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/a.....home1.html
He’d probably use that check, or a similar one, to finance a crib in downtown near petco.
January 26, 2006 at 2:57 pm
Piazza link not related to baseball, but funny as heck:
http://www.spitter.com/spitter_piazza_wed.htm
This is the funniest baseball site on the ‘net. Too bad they stopped updating it about 1 1/2 years ago.
On a more serious note — you might be able to count the Blue Jays out of the Piazza race. They’re very interested in Bengie Molina, and it appears, despite all the posturing, that something is going to get worked out there.
January 26, 2006 at 3:13 pm
Now that IS comedy. Score two for Nicky G.
Guess Mike likes the older man. Thought he’d rather snap the ball with the younger Troy Akmen, but you never can tell about people.
And that is what ducks needs more of, snarky comedy to brighten up the daily Plate O Stats.
Currently Googling Klesko, Ryan Klesko. Interesting…bow hunting….ooooo.
January 26, 2006 at 4:35 pm
Since we are going comedy today.
Something current:
http://www.thebrushback.com/cubanteam_full.htm
January 26, 2006 at 7:28 pm
Good stuff, Didi. That was pretty funny. I’ve been looking for another satirical baseball site, and I think you directed me to one. This is a great day.
If you guys get some time, look through The Spitter archives — just hysterical stuff. Totally bizarre and silly.
January 27, 2006 at 9:17 am
Here’s BP’s Tom Gordon’s view of Padres’ off-season transactions … http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=4725
January 27, 2006 at 9:22 am
Bye-bye Breslow:
http://www.boston.com/sports/b.....eslow.html
January 27, 2006 at 9:26 am
Thanks, LM. Padres = best defensive outfield in baseball? I’d have to see what else is out there, but this should be a fun group to watch.
Also, if signing Eric Young and acquiring Bobby Hill gave the Pads “some room to trade Mark Loretta for catcher Doug Mirabelli,” then those are two moves that shouldn’t have been made.
Note that I love the signing of Young; I just don’t think the Prospectus author is looking at this from the right angle.
January 27, 2006 at 10:26 am
Geoff, I agree. And why does he not mention the Eaton/Aki trade at all? BTW, why do you all think about a straight platoon in Left of Ben Johnson and Termell Sledge if we were to trade Roberts to Sox for Wells and cash? I have to say, I am pretty impressed with Sledge and Gonzalez as young players (funny though, I was watching highlights of Gonzales on mlb.com… every homer he hits goes no deeper than two rows in.). I am dying for opening day!!!!!
January 27, 2006 at 10:43 am
Not sure how well-known this site is, but to me, it’s the best satirical sports site on the web. Not always baseball, but always hilarious:
http://www.sportspickle.com
Check out the poll this week. Absolutely brilliant.
January 27, 2006 at 11:50 am
2006 PECOTA projections are now out. Made a very quick Padre scan, and these things stuck out:
- another solid year for Giles;
- more goodness from Peavy (3rd on his list of comps is Pedro!) and PECOTA has VERY little worry about Peavy being fragile;
- C. Young has a slightly better PECOTA (even park-adjusted) than Eaton;
- a decent season for Barfield;
CAUTION: good news stops here.
- PECOTA is very pessimistic about Mirabelli (little chance of being durable enough to play much) and Castilla (9 HR, 8.9 VORP in 369 PA);
- Gonzalez, Hensley, Stauffer not making any significant contributions in ‘06.
- Brazelton, W. Young, Blum & Hill with negative VORP;
- BIG chance that Linebrink will very significantly regress;
- after Peavy (52.9 VORP), next highest of Padres pitchers is Young’s 14.5, only other above 10 is Linebrink;
- among Padres hitters, after Giles (42.5 VORP), next highest is Khalil’s 23.9, with Barfield (!) only other to crack 20.
January 27, 2006 at 12:32 pm
Newsday in NY headline in today’s Sports section, “Piazza likely will be Padre”.
http://www.newsday.com/sports/.....-headlines
Some quotes from KT. Nothing too new, though.
January 27, 2006 at 12:41 pm
Dprat, could you find the PECOTA for Brian Lawrence? His VORP last year was higher than the rest of the staff projects for 2006. That was the year he was supposedly so awful that we had to get rid of him.
January 27, 2006 at 12:50 pm
Rest of the staff “besides Peavy.”
How did Cameron not project to more than a 20 VORP? 22.5 last year and he broke his face in August.
It’s the rotation, Towers. It was the rotation last year and you traded our second most valuable starting pitcher. We need Wells bad. Gimme some tubby luvin’!
January 27, 2006 at 12:50 pm
dprat, what’s Sean Burroughs PECOTA compared to Castilla’s? How about Cameron’s to Nevin’s or Nady’s? One thing to consider when these sources project taking into account right hander’s apptitude to hit homers at Petco is that fact that the home team at Petco has played 81 games a year with some REALLY CRAPPY right handed hitters (Nevin, for example) who don’t hit anywhere. I’ll be more convinced when we see 10-15 yrs. of data and isolated visiting right handed hitters. Khalil seems to do just fine, eh?
January 27, 2006 at 1:08 pm
Khalil’s hit 9 HR at home in nearly 500 at-bats. 355 SLG. His home OPS was almost identical in 2004 and 2005, 684 and 683.
I do see what you’re saying about the quality of RH hitters and the short supply of data, but we can’t expect that Petco will suddenly energize a RH bat.
January 27, 2006 at 1:19 pm
A little Friday humor:
http://tinyurl.com/8c3r9
January 27, 2006 at 3:40 pm
TW, I haven’t seen the 2006 projections yet, but in 2005, they projected 19.2 VORP and 3.9 WARP from Lawrence; that assumed he only would pitch 163 or so innings. They also projected 11.6 VORP from Lawrence in 2006.
In 2005, Lawrence provided 15.8 VORP and 3.0 WARP, underperforming his projection and unfortunately he did so in 195 2/3 innings, making his rate even worse. There were 63 pitchers in baseball who threw at least 190 innings; only 5 had a worse VORP than Lawrence. The nicest thing that can be said about his 2005 season is that he ate innings, but he did not eat them well.
January 27, 2006 at 3:56 pm
TF: Are you saying Lawrence gave you indigestion, too?
January 27, 2006 at 5:05 pm
Article on the ‘05 draft at Padres.com:
http://tinyurl.com/bo2sq
January 27, 2006 at 5:41 pm
TW,
PECOTA for Lawrence = 22.6 VORP in 186 innings.
And for Cameron, 13.7 VORP - ahhh, I’m noticing that they’ve listed Cameron’s position as RF, which lowers his VORP. They’ve also got him at 443 PA, which holds it down a little as well. They have Roberts as the Padres CF. I’ll send a note to BP. The projections will go thru several iterations before opening day, and this seems like one they need to fix.)
jesse,
Burroughs = 4.5 VORP in 411 PA.
Nevin = 7.2 in 409.
Nady = 11.0 in 335.
January 27, 2006 at 5:55 pm
Geoff,
Thanks for the Lazy Monday. I’m leaving work with a smile to start the weekend.
January 27, 2006 at 6:22 pm
VORP? sounds like a human-like life form from Star Track. Please elaborate.
PECOTA? Is that unpasturized cheese from Europe (lifted that from the movie Munich)?
Probably Money Ball terms. I so old school.
Sports Pickle-love it. That new Nike running shoe looks comfy. Wonder what kinda margins they get on a pair?
January 27, 2006 at 6:55 pm
TF, that’s an interesting cut-off point. Rate matters, but so does volume. Almost anyone who throws 190 innings, by definition, is going to be a decent pitcher. Otherwise they get demoted, cut, sent to the bullpen. Or they were hurt.
Let’s look at three pitchers likely to be in the 2006 rotation as things stand now:
Woody Williams threw 159 innings. 7.4 VORP. Unless he struck out 93 batters in 31 innings, he wasn’t going to beat Lawrence at 190.
Estes threw only 123 innings for a 7 VORP. Even if you doubled his IP, he wouldn’t have produced as much as Lawrence and he would have eaten 50 more innings for a far worse rate.
Chan Ho Park. 154 IP, -3.6 VORP.
Lawrence is never pretty, but he produced. Last year was his worst by far. He might be done, he might have burned his bridge with Bochy, but that doesn’t mean you trade him for Vinny Castilla. You especially don’t trade him for Vinny Castilla when your rotation was already in shambles and he was better than several pitchers who are likely to take his spot.
January 28, 2006 at 9:27 am
TF: With Bochy as manager, poorly performing starting pitchers don’t necessarily get demoted, cut or sent to the bullpen. Lawrence performed poorly in 2005, with an 80 ERA+. Unfortunately for the Padres, Park, Williams, Stauffer and the rest of the 5th starter monster performed worse.
As far as replacing Lawrence, if it was with Hensley, I think there would have been a fair chance he would outperform B Law in the short and long run. Estes and/or Astacio could have gone either way.
I do agree with you that they shouldn’t have traded Lawrence for Castilla, but that is mostly due to timing, IMO. Lawrence should have been traded two years earlier, when his value was much higher, or they should have waited later in this offseason to see what other scraps or B level prospects they could obtain for his rotting carcass.
January 28, 2006 at 12:12 pm
TF, the point is, you were comparing Lawrence to a cohort of pitchers who generally were good, then saying his rate stank because of that. Among pitchers who threw 190 innings, he was bad. Among Padre pitchers projected to be in the 2006 rotation, he was good.
The Hardball Times ran a report on Pitching Runs Created the other day. Lawrence ranked 40th in the NL. SP around that level were Schmidt, Lidle, Tomko, Moehler, Victor Zambrano. That’s worth something to a rotation as bad as ours.
If Lawrence is a rotting carcass, what are Shawn Estes and Chan Ho Park? From 2002 Estes has ERA+ of 78, 74, 86, 92, while throwing almost 200 fewer innings than Lawrence. I can’t even write about Park without wanting to stab myself in the eye.
Trading for Castilla when we did was the worst part. Just dumb to buy something nobody else wants instead of waiting to see if something better comes along.
January 29, 2006 at 2:47 pm
It’s official.
Rosenthal has the Padres getting Piazza for one year-2 million dollars. Again, I think it’s a great deal for the Pads. Makes us a better team this year. Any chance that we could send Mirrabelli back to BoSox (they dealt away Shoppach) and get Boomer Wells?
January 29, 2006 at 2:55 pm
Piazza + $2 million = bargain
January 29, 2006 at 3:10 pm
TW, that was NOT a dumb trade. Castilla is a place-holder until Headley is ready. Furthermore, he’s a LOT cheaper (due $2-3 mil next year) than is B-Law (like $11m over the next two years).
***
I also like the Piazza deal. Low risk, high reward… What’s not to like?
January 29, 2006 at 3:16 pm
Piazza has agreed to a contract with the Padres, per MSNBC. http://msnbc.msn.com/id/11088975/
January 29, 2006 at 3:59 pm
Peter, that’s not remotely true.
Castilla makes 3.2 million this year.
Lawrence makes 3.5.
We sent 550,000 to Washington. Right there we’re 250,000 in the hole. Lawrence makes that as a bonus because he was traded.
Lawrence has an OPTION for next year at 5.7 million. It’s optional. Hence the name. We didn’t have to spend it. Washington doesn’t have to spend it. If they decline the option, we send them ANOTHER 425,000.
At most Lawrence would have cost us 800,000 more than Castilla, if we don’t make the trade and decline Lawrence’s option.
Chase Headley has 15 at-bats at Ft. Wayne. You’re suggesting he’s ready for the majors in April 2007. He’s polished. He’s not so polished that we should plan on him going from low a, aa, and aaa from April to September.
It was criminally stupid to make the trade when it was made. Since then better options like Koskie and Branyan have been available. Koskie actually IS a placeholder, since he’s signed for two years.
January 29, 2006 at 4:00 pm
I don’t like his throwing arm. I think with the pitching staff as it is now, there are going to be an awful lot of baserunners. Not that his offense won’t make up for that when compared to Mirabelli, but it isn’t all roses. Good signing for this year, but I’m a little hesitant a the mutual option for 2007 at 8 million. Yikes. If we trade Dave F. Roberts (and maybe Mirabelli) back to this Red Sox for some pitching, I’ll be liking this more.
And Castilla is a waste of space. League average, if not slightly below. Total PR signing. Which is fine, but don’t pretend it makes baseball sense.
January 29, 2006 at 4:09 pm
Looks like it’s a done deal:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5289794
Hooray for us! Got him on the cheap, and it’s not like we’re looking for a long term solution. This looks like a really nice fit for everybody involved.
January 29, 2006 at 4:09 pm
You pick your spots with Piazza. Use him against teams that don’t run much, DH in interleague, vs all lefties.
It’s not all roses, but it’s better than the Chopped Liver Crew.
We better not carry three catchers, though. That’s managing by fear.
January 29, 2006 at 6:30 pm
One small (though potentially not small) accompaniment to the Piazza deal — The Padres have no room on the 40-man roster for him. They’ll have to drop someone. It’ll be interesting to see who that is.
January 29, 2006 at 7:02 pm
With Mirabelli as the backup and LaForest in Triple-A as insurance… Ross is on the 40-man, right? I can’t imagine his being there much longer.
January 29, 2006 at 7:56 pm
I like the Piazza signing but reading this thread reminded me we have Shawn Estes, I had somehow managed to blank that one out.
This may be old news but it’s new to me, the Peter Gammons column generator:
http://www.humbug.com/diamond/notes.html
January 29, 2006 at 8:43 pm
Thanks, anthony, what a riot! I’d have also belived it if it said it was a Tracy Ringolsby column generator
January 30, 2006 at 6:39 am
Anthony –
That Gammons generator is great. Heck, that site is great. They have a Carl Everett Limerick contest on there:
A fielder when beaned by a phone
Declared in a jubilant tone
“I’ll tell you one thing
If you just count the ring
You’ll know you should leave me alone”
Carl, with the mountainous name
Your mind’s like a sputtering flame
On subjects Jurassic
Your reasoning’s Classic
Now shut up and play in the game
But, I digress. Who do you guys think the Padres are going to release to make room for Piazza? I’m thinking it might be one of the 3,567 catchers that they’ve acquired. Ross, maybe?