Comments on: Fairness, Perception, and Viewing the World with a Critical Eye http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html Blogging the San Diego Padres baseball club. Established 1997. Fri, 21 Nov 2008 16:36:18 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: LynchMob http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13818 LynchMob Thu, 12 Jan 2006 17:58:49 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13818 2005 was not kind to the 35-year-old Allen Embree ... http://www.baseball-reference.com/e/embreal01.shtml ... perhaps he'll get a spot on the Beavers? <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-13818">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> 2005 was not kind to the 35-year-old Allen Embree … http://www.baseball-reference......al01.shtml … perhaps he’ll get a spot on the Beavers?

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]]> By: anthony http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13817 anthony Thu, 12 Jan 2006 17:13:07 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13817 UT is reporting it now: http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/20060112-1649-bbn-padres-embree.html Now we have someone to relieve Estes. Not a bad guy to take a flier on, maybe he'll bounce back.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-13817">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> UT is reporting it now:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....mbree.html

Now we have someone to relieve Estes.

Not a bad guy to take a flier on, maybe he’ll bounce back.

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]]> By: Geoff Young http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13816 Geoff Young Thu, 12 Jan 2006 16:54:45 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13816 OT: Pads have signed Alan Embree. This one's not on the Internet just yet. It's a minor-league deal with a ST invite.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-13816">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> OT: Pads have signed Alan Embree. This one’s not on the Internet just yet. It’s a minor-league deal with a ST invite.

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]]> By: Pat http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13815 Pat Thu, 12 Jan 2006 16:04:58 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13815 LOL! Thanks Geoff.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-13815">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> LOL! Thanks Geoff.

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]]> By: Geoff Young http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13814 Geoff Young Thu, 12 Jan 2006 15:23:25 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13814 Not familiar with how WS are calculated? Should be able to do it on the back of an envelope: http://www.baseballgraphs.com/main/index.php/site/details/#sharecalc Did I mention it would be a very large envelope?<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-13814">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Not familiar with how WS are calculated? Should be able to do it on the back of an envelope:

http://www.baseballgraphs.com/.....#sharecalc

Did I mention it would be a very large envelope?

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]]> By: Pat http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13813 Pat Thu, 12 Jan 2006 12:22:03 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13813 "I'm not overlooking his playing short, I'm just not weighting it as heavily as you do." Fair enough. Interesting point about WARP; however, at least in theory WARP3 is adjusted for "all time." I'm sure it could still be distorted as you describe, but unllikely to be misleading over the course of a career; wouldn't you think? How do WS stack up as an evaluation tool versus something like WARP? I'm really not familiar with how they are calculated. "He blows Joe Tinker away. So okay, put him in." I'm glad you came around. :-)<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-13813">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> “I’m not overlooking his playing short, I’m just not weighting it as heavily as you do.”

Fair enough. Interesting point about WARP; however, at least in theory WARP3 is adjusted for “all time.” I’m sure it could still be distorted as you describe, but unllikely to be misleading over the course of a career; wouldn’t you think?

How do WS stack up as an evaluation tool versus something like WARP? I’m really not familiar with how they are calculated.

“He blows Joe Tinker away. So okay, put him in.”

I’m glad you came around. :-)

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]]> By: Geoff Young http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13812 Geoff Young Thu, 12 Jan 2006 09:23:04 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13812 OT: Lima claims "misunderstanding"... http://msn.foxsports.com/other/story/5241842<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-13812">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> OT: Lima claims “misunderstanding”…

http://msn.foxsports.com/other/story/5241842

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]]> By: Tom Waits http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13811 Tom Waits Thu, 12 Jan 2006 08:57:11 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13811 I'm not overlooking his playing short, I'm just not weighting it as heavily as you do. WARP bothers me a bit, because it's replacement level for that season. If your competition stinks that year, your WARP goes up. But he did end up with more Win Shares than Larkin and Reese. I wouldn't have suspected that. He blows Joe Tinker away. So okay, put him in.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-13811">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> I’m not overlooking his playing short, I’m just not weighting it as heavily as you do.

WARP bothers me a bit, because it’s replacement level for that season. If your competition stinks that year, your WARP goes up.

But he did end up with more Win Shares than Larkin and Reese. I wouldn’t have suspected that. He blows Joe Tinker away. So okay, put him in.

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]]> By: Pat http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13810 Pat Thu, 12 Jan 2006 08:01:06 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13810 But you're overlooking the fact he played a premium defensive position and played it very well. We're not talking about a corner IF or corner OF, but a SS. Even in some of those seasons where his offense was below average, he still was a very productive player due to his defensive contribution, which is why I mentioned his WARP numbers. For example, in 1981 and 1982 his OPS+ was in the 90's, but his WARP3 numbers were 7.6 and 7.5, both of which are very good to great. In 1985 his OPS+ was just 90, but he brought up his WARP3 to 6.9, a very good season at least. I think looking solely at his up and down offense is not the best way to evaluate someone who played up the middle defensively, ymmv.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-13810">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> But you’re overlooking the fact he played a premium defensive position and played it very well. We’re not talking about a corner IF or corner OF, but a SS. Even in some of those seasons where his offense was below average, he still was a very productive player due to his defensive contribution, which is why I mentioned his WARP numbers.

For example, in 1981 and 1982 his OPS+ was in the 90’s, but his WARP3 numbers were 7.6 and 7.5, both of which are very good to great. In 1985 his OPS+ was just 90, but he brought up his WARP3 to 6.9, a very good season at least. I think looking solely at his up and down offense is not the best way to evaluate someone who played up the middle defensively, ymmv.

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]]> By: Tom Waits http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13809 Tom Waits Thu, 12 Jan 2006 06:40:04 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/01/fairness-perception-and-viewing-the-world-with-a-critical-eye.html#comment-13809 Pat, Trammell's career also includes 11 seasons of below 100 OPS+. 3 of those did happen before he was old enough to drink, so he shouldn't be penalized for them. That's 9 seasons where his OPS+ was above-average, peaking at 155 with several 130s. I'd say 6 great, 3 very good, 1 average, and 7 below-average seasons after age 21. I'd be willing to dilute the weighting of his last 3 seasons when he was just hanging around (OPS+ 85, 81, 35), but then you'd have to subtract the hits he got in those years. 6 great seasons isn't enough for me. It's on the cusp. Bill James likes him a lot (#9 SS of all time), and I respect James. Trammell is the sort of guy the Hall consistently underrates, someone who did a lot of things well but didn't do any one thing spectacularly.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-13809">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Pat, Trammell’s career also includes 11 seasons of below 100 OPS+. 3 of those did happen before he was old enough to drink, so he shouldn’t be penalized for them.

That’s 9 seasons where his OPS+ was above-average, peaking at 155 with several 130s. I’d say 6 great, 3 very good, 1 average, and 7 below-average seasons after age 21.

I’d be willing to dilute the weighting of his last 3 seasons when he was just hanging around (OPS+ 85, 81, 35), but then you’d have to subtract the hits he got in those years.

6 great seasons isn’t enough for me. It’s on the cusp. Bill James likes him a lot (#9 SS of all time), and I respect James. Trammell is the sort of guy the Hall consistently underrates, someone who did a lot of things well but didn’t do any one thing spectacularly.

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