Open Thread
Wed, Dec 7, 2005
by Geoff Young
Okay, there is a lot going on. I’m running a very cool interview today and I’d like to leave the comments of that open so you can ask questions of our guest. We’ll keep this thread open for talking about Trevor Hoffman, Adam Eaton, Mark Loretta, Juan Eichelberger, and whatever other deals might happen.
Here’s the latest information I can find to get things started:
- Padres await Hoffman’s decision (Padres.com). From the article: “The bids apparently are in, the Indians offering a reported three years and $21 million — $17.5 million guaranteed, with a vesting option for ‘08 — and the Padres coming in at an unspecified lower figure.” Also rumors involving the Phillies, Nationals and Mets. Kevin Towers knocks down the Kenny Rogers rumor. Sean Burroughs for Tampa Bay RHP Dewon Brazelton is mentioned.
- This may be Trevor’s time to choose: Padres or Indians (U-T). This one says the Indians have guaranteed $14-16M over 2 years, with the Padres not matching. Burroughs for Brazelton again is mentioned.
- Hoffman will make decision on future today (NC Times). More Hoffman, more Burroughs for Brazelton.
- Eaton, three teammates drawing market interest (U-T). The usual Rangers players (Gerald Laird, Laynce Nix, Kevin Mench, Adrian Gonzalez), Reds outfielder Austin Kearns, David Wells, Doug Mirabelli. Nothing too new or exciting here, except maybe Kearns, who has terrific upside.
We’ll keep an eye on stuff (”we” meaning you and me, of course) and hopefully have a few more answers by the end of the day. In the meantime, I have an interview up that I encourage you to read. It’s about a guy who does a lot of hard work behind the scenes, and I think you’ll like it.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
December 7, 2005 at 8:14 am
I got some feedback from Rick at the Indians MVN site: He says the Indians are waiting on Hoffy’s decision to choose whether or not to heavily pursue Javier Vasquez. He also feels that Shapiro would not offer a thrid year to Trevor without having been very certain he would be of value in it. That organization does have a rep for being rather frugal…
December 7, 2005 at 8:36 am
Thanks, Rich, for the info. Frankly I’m a bit surprised that an organization like the Indians is even considering a guaranteed third year. Either way, we should know soon.
Also, it sounds like Burroughs for Brazelton is going to happen. Here’s from St. Petersburg Times:
http://www.sptimes.com/2005/12.....wap_.shtml
December 7, 2005 at 8:57 am
Good job on the interview, Geoff.
I enjoy the behind the scene look. And thanks to Tim Powers for all the great work. He must be in great shape to be running around the hallways dodging the children and trying to shake Thunder loose. I’m going to have that picture in head for the rest of the day.
At least, we now know that Nady didn’t sleep with Bochy’s wife but was definitely in his doghouse.
Juan Pierre just got traded to the Cubs. Wow. Do you think this move makes Patterson expendable? Can the Padres use him as a bench player?
Waiting for Hoffy, a new play coming to a ballpark near you.
December 7, 2005 at 9:31 am
I was looking up Brazelton and he’s a bit better than I thought but not much. He’s a better Wesley Mitchell Obermueller (doesn’t sound like a pitcher, does it) but more of a headcase and cheaper.
This swap doesn’t seem to add anything for the Padres, other than perhaps another piece to trade maybe. Can Burroughs’ value really be that low?
Geoff: as for Linebrink, the Padres can cross that bridge when 2007 is over. I’m sure this FA market is not worth for the Padres to spend money on. Why not save the $$$ for mid-season trade? With the farm system in better hands, it’s likely that the Padres could draft a closer in the next two years.
December 7, 2005 at 9:46 am
Very cool interview Geoff! Awesome to get that sort of inside glimpse to the game, the press box, and the clubhouse. I figured the part about Nady and Bochy had to have some truth to it, but I never would have figured Nevin to be barking at little kids (note, that part about Nevin is more tongue in cheek commentary :-).
December 7, 2005 at 11:21 am
The latest from Rosenthal:
The Indians have increased their offer to three guaranteed years in their quest to land free-agent closer Trevor Hoffman, according to a source close to the negotiations. The Padres are believed to be offering a two-year deal at a lesser salary, leaving Hoffman with the most difficult decision of his career. Hoffman, 38, has been with the Padres since 1993.
Also reporting Burroughs for Brazelton is a done deal.
I’m sad to see Sean go, even with his struggles I enjoyed watching him.
If Trevor leaves I would assume that means Loretta stays and Barfield gets another year in the minors.
December 7, 2005 at 11:57 am
Padres and Red Sox have agreed to a deal for Loretta. The announcement forthcoming. Simply click over to Fire Brand on the menu to read more.
December 7, 2005 at 12:09 pm
Ugh. Here’s more on the potential Loretta giveaway at BostonHerald.com:
http://redsox.bostonherald.com.....eid=116000
I don’t even want to know how negotiations got to that point. If this actually happens, expect a pretty good rant tomorrow (or tonight).
December 7, 2005 at 12:17 pm
Brazelton deal announced at Padres.com:
http://tinyurl.com/d5szl
Guess tonight’s going to be a busy night for me.
December 7, 2005 at 12:18 pm
It’s got to be a salary dump - for Nomar? Hoffman?
I said, “No way” on the Mark for Mirabelli deal, but wow…
December 7, 2005 at 12:47 pm
Loretta was getting paid a bargain salary for a veteran. I don’t like the trade. Even though I like Barfield, I wanted to see him get another year at Portland. I wouldn’t rule out Bobby Hill either in the Peoria 2B competition.
December 7, 2005 at 12:53 pm
Brazelton was once the third overall pick in the amateur draft! His numbers aren’t very encourgaging but there’s little risk involved and plenty of opportunity for big reward. Like Pedro Astacio, Petco is the perfect place for him to turn his career around.
December 7, 2005 at 12:57 pm
Yeah LC, I LOVE the Brazelton pickup but what did you mean by the “Peoria 2B competition?”
December 7, 2005 at 1:03 pm
Peter
Spring training 2006. Josh Barfield will pretty much have the job locked up like Greene did entering 2004, but Bobby Hill will probably be given an outside chance as well.
December 7, 2005 at 1:06 pm
The Giants have signed Mark Sweeney to a two year deal.
That hurts. I am disapointed the Padres are losing his bat off the bench, but I am even more ticked off about him going to the Giants. I hate the Giants more than any team in baseball and its sucks to see a good guy like Sweeney take their dirty money.
December 7, 2005 at 1:15 pm
That has to mean Trevor stays. I’m very happy with Mirabelli behind the plate. The guy can hit and is fairly consistent. Given the uncertainty about Olivo’s true level of ability I think it’s important to have a solid vet like Mirabelli.
I think Sean is a lot more likely to turn it around than Brazelton. Petco won’t help him find the plate but maybe Balls can figure him out.
Does the Loretta deal mean we’ll be getting Nomar? Or do you guys think it was simply to sign Trevor?
December 7, 2005 at 1:18 pm
“Or do you guys think it was simply to sign Trevor?” - i hope not…
December 7, 2005 at 1:19 pm
One more thing, if the Loretta trade is indeed true, that gives Bruce Bochy another reason to give Geoff Blum more worthless starts at 2B. ****!
December 7, 2005 at 1:22 pm
The snakes on the move:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2251206
That sucks losing Sweeney to Los Gigantes.
On top of losing Loretta. Man, why can’t KT deal Klesko instead.
December 7, 2005 at 1:26 pm
…because he has a no-trade clause…
December 7, 2005 at 1:34 pm
Interesting scouting report on our new catcher:
http://www.boston.com/sports/b.....mirabelli/
December 7, 2005 at 2:24 pm
Okay, first the positive: I salute KT and the Padres for getting the Giles deal done. Made me much more upbeat about next year (you might remember that before that deal I’d stated I had hope for my Padres… in 2008.)
And, in general, I also think the Cameron/Nady trade is a good one.
But, please someone out there, explain the sum of KT’s trades (thus far) to me…
Burroughs, Lawrence, Loretta, and Nady depart for Brazelton, Cameron, Castilla, and Mirabelli. By my (literally) back-of-the-envelope calculations, the net effect is we added about $2M in 2006 payroll for four players who combined for 2 less wins (combined WARP3 incoming = 8.3; outgoing = 10.2) in 2005 than what we lost. In addition, guys coming in average 33 years, guys lost avg. 29 years, so we should expect that the difference in wins is much more likely to grow than shrink.
You guys are brighter than me, what am I not getting here?
December 7, 2005 at 2:31 pm
If you look at it positionally… okay, we did solve a major problem in CF. But we’ve created one at 2B. And Mirabelli and Castilla aren’t the solutions we want at C and 3B. Still not getting it.
December 7, 2005 at 2:37 pm
Oh, yeah. That no trade clause is a bitch, ain’t it?
I don’t see any numbers that indicated Mirabelli as a good hitting catcher. He’s a backup for now, right?
December 7, 2005 at 2:50 pm
Mirabelli won’t embarrass you as a hitter. Solid, not good enough to be a starter….
Keep in mind the Padres like Hill @ 2B, are after Nomar (who I still question at the keystone), and we have Barfield waiting in the wings.
So 2B isn’t nec. a hole since the Padres aren’t done.
PLUS… don’t forget, we’ve taken Ramon (and probably) Hoffy’s contracts off the books (www.HardBallDollars.com lists Hoffy @ $5m and Ramon at $2.4m - I would have sworn that Ramon was closer to 4.2 than 2.4…). So that +$2m now goes to a -$5.4m
December 7, 2005 at 3:02 pm
Mirabelli was damn good in 04, not so good last year. When I’ve seen him I’ve been impressed with his hitting, he has some pop. The difference in his BA from 04 to 05 was only what, 6 hits over 136 ABs? They love him in Boston, I’m sure he’ll be fine here too.
At any rate, it’s a big disparity in talent. Maybe KT should take Boston off his speed dial, he keeps getting ripped off.
December 7, 2005 at 3:04 pm
Keep in mind, while I’m not a huge fan of the Loretta deal, we won the West last year essentially without Mark. So if we can improve. I’m all for it…
December 7, 2005 at 3:11 pm
Peter,
Ramon & Hoffy don’t figure into my question. I’m asking about the trades straight up. Do they, collectively, make sense from talent, cost, and/or needs perspectives? (Besides, the $ saved IF they let both Ramon & Hoffy go, will be more than eaten up by raises due Klesko, Peavy, Williams, Giles, Linebrink, et al plus raises to various arb-eligible players.)
December 7, 2005 at 3:29 pm
“I’m asking about the trades straight up.” Then take salary out of the equation.
We’ll go after some guys who are more expensive and other guys who are cheaper, but it all has to work itself out in the wash…
December 7, 2005 at 3:30 pm
(Hat tip Paul R.): Trevor just re-signed w/ Padres - 2 years + options, #’s forthcoming
December 7, 2005 at 3:35 pm
Padres, Hoffman Agree to Terms.
Posted by Richard B. Wade at December 7, 2005 03:17 PM
Apparently 2 years with a third year (vesting?) option. No word on the money, apparently.
Posted by Richard B. Wade at December 7, 2005 03:18 PM
December 7, 2005 at 3:37 pm
I don’t like the Trevor acquisition all that much by itself. If it allows us to deal Akinori Otsuka in a manner that is advantageous when we otherwise would not have been able to, perhaps that will alter my opinion of the signing.
December 7, 2005 at 3:47 pm
Sorry, poor choice of words with “straight up.” But my point remains that KT traded for 4 new guys who will cost us $2M more, demonstrated less talent last year, and are significantly farther past their prime years than the 4 guys he gave up. And in doing so, patched one hole and created another. This is progress?
December 7, 2005 at 3:54 pm
If you look at it by WARP1/G Cameron, Castilla, Mirabilli and Brazelton were at .032, .028, .026, & -.020.
Nady, Lawrence, Loretta, Burroughs were at .014, .091, .032, & .018.
If you multiply those out by a full season each, you get 5.1, 4.6, 4.2 & -0.6 for 2.2, 2.9, 5.2 & 3.0. 13.2 for 13.4. It’s pretty damn close.
If you look at it by position, the numbers make more sense. In center field, it’s a net 2.9. For third base it’s a net 1.6. At starting pitcher the net is -3.5. That leaves the injury prone, in decline Loretta and the back-up catcher unaccounted for, obviously. I think that I’d rather have Brazelton than B-Law in spite of the numbers at this point. As for center, that’s no contest in favor of Cameron. At third base, I’d rather let Sean develop, but there’s a good chance he won’t and Castilla is almost certainly going to be better in ‘06.
December 7, 2005 at 3:56 pm
Can anyone verify the Loretta deal? I can’t find it mentioned anywhere. Sorry for my ig’nance.
December 7, 2005 at 3:59 pm
U-T verifies Hoffy:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....stays.html
No word yet on Loretta, although presumably the Hoffman signing is what held up that announcement.
December 7, 2005 at 3:59 pm
The teams have yet to confirm it as far as I know, but sources w/in the org. have confirmed it. Alderson basically admitted that Loretta is gone…
December 7, 2005 at 4:04 pm
They’re announcing the Hoffman deal now on MLB radio. 2 years, vesting option for a third year.
December 7, 2005 at 4:04 pm
With the relative dearth of FA starting pitching, might the Padres instead still be players for Ramon “Plate Blocker Supreme” Hernandez?
December 7, 2005 at 4:06 pm
KT says he lost sleep last few nights; had 100+ e-mails a day to his blackberry from fans telling him to re-sign Trevor.
December 7, 2005 at 4:08 pm
Terms… 2yrs/ 13.5M… vesting option could take it to 19M/3yrs
December 7, 2005 at 4:08 pm
KT says there is “always a chance” that they might sign Ramon.
December 7, 2005 at 4:09 pm
From ESPN.com:
Hoffman spurned an offer from the Cleveland Indians to remain the Padres’ closer for a two-year deal worth a guaranteed $13.5 million ,with a club option for a third year, ESPN.com has confirmed.
December 7, 2005 at 4:20 pm
I hope that emailing rabble gets out and buys some tickets to watch their beloved goateed closer, because they just blew any shot at winning 90 games this year.
December 7, 2005 at 4:21 pm
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.c...../WARP1.jpg
For dprat.
December 7, 2005 at 4:22 pm
Signing Trevor shouldn’t negatively impact the team this season, Chris.
December 7, 2005 at 4:22 pm
Interesting comment, Chris. What is your reasoning?
December 7, 2005 at 4:22 pm
Thanks, RBW, for the analysis. I think only Cameron/Nady has a good chance to be a net positive for the Padres. The other three leave me scratching my head. Agree with you that Loretta may be headed for rapid decline, which is exactly what concerns me about Castilla… and a 34-yr old catcher. Not nearly as optimistic as you re: Brazelton. Better than B-Law, really?
December 7, 2005 at 4:25 pm
I’ll say this, I’m stoked about this deal…
If ESPN’s #’s are accurate, this is an awesome deal for the Padres.
Keep in mind, the key is $13.5m guar.
It’s probably a $5.5-6/yr. with a buy-out or additional 5.5-6 3rd year…
I’ve said all along that I’d do $5m-per, I’d think about $6m and I’d say, “No” when it got to $7m-per. And I said there’s no way I’d guarrentee 3 years. The Padres did ALL those things.
If Trevor remains effective, we get him for three. If he loses effectiveness, we had him for 2 years at less than $7m-per…
It’s a great day. Now if Ramon would just accept the Balt. offer of 4years/$26 that before we have to offer arbitration (I want those extra draft picks)…
December 7, 2005 at 4:34 pm
KT on the radio: after they (KT & Sandy) made initial proposal to Hoffman (2yrs/10M) over dinner, Hoffman left the table. Went into clubhouse next day, and cleaned out his locker.
Says “never say never” re: Ramon, and says they are stilling talking with Boston about Wells.
December 7, 2005 at 4:44 pm
I’m happy that Hoffman is still with the Padres. Plus, I read that the option will vest if he finishes 45 games in 2007 or 90 combined for 06/07.
Presumably, finishing a losing game counts as a game finished. Not a bad deal.
So, with not much more money, the Padres get to keep Hoffman…at the cost of moving Loretta in exchange of Mirabelli with very little PR hits from the fans.
Overall, I don’t see very high improvements for the Padres on the hitting front. The team is counting on:
- Castilla to hit better than last year,
- Cameron to hit at Petco,
- Klesko to find his stroke that he lost the second half of last season,
- Greene to be more selective at the plate,
- Whoever man 2B to hit better than Loretta and Co., and
- Olivo to hit like he did last season but for the whole season.
OK, it’s not all done yet but so far, not a big improvement.
December 7, 2005 at 4:52 pm
Didi, I think you underestimate our team…
I’m going to number your list and add commentary…
1. Castilla to hit better than last year,
- He just needs to hit better than Blum/DJ/Burroughs did last year - not a tall order.
2. Cameron to hit at Petco
- Needs to hit decently plus continue taking his walks and resume playing Andruw Jones-esque defense
3. Klesko to find his stroke that he lost the second half of last season
- Yeah… Or find himself cut, or an expensive bat off the bench
4. Greene to be more selective at the plate,
- In limited numbers, he’s done well as a leadoff hitter, I think that’s where he’ll hit next year
5. Whoever man 2B to hit better than Loretta and Co., and
- Well a combination of hitting and fielding, but yes… But that wasn’t much…
5. Olivo to hit like he did last season but for the whole season.
- No, just hit as well or better than Ramon, he, and [the other catcher we had] did…
December 7, 2005 at 4:57 pm
Alderson on 1090, I got this from the SOns of Sam Horn Red Sox board:
“-For Burroughs they got Brazelton and “considerations in the rule 5 draft tomorrow” I have know idea what considerations he is talking about but thats exactly what he said.
-not going after Nomar
-Offering arbitration to Ramon Hernandez
-Fick likely not coming back to Padres.”
Greene at leadoff worries me, just because of what happened to Burroughs after they put him there.
I agree with Peter, Vinny only needs to be better than Burroughs. Cameron in CF is a huge improvement over DR defensively and in an average year about as good as DR in his career best.
December 7, 2005 at 5:07 pm
Loretta confirmed:
http://www.bradenton.com/mld/b.....352948.htm
December 7, 2005 at 5:15 pm
Dude,
Bradenton.com?!? Is there no stone you leave unturned? Nice work (if in gathering a bad message).
December 7, 2005 at 5:34 pm
Guys, Mirabelli will be great for you guys. I’d split time with Olivo if I were you, because Belli’s been a backup for so long. Who knows if he’d respond well to a fulltime gig. Maybe start Belli 5x a week if there’s a 7-game week.
He’s great in the clubhouse. He’s quiet and goes among his own. His power will certainly take a hit going to Petco. He’s not really a linedrive guy, he either grounds a ball, flys out, pops out, or hits it a long way. One of the few without batting gloves. He stands pretty still at the plate, moving ever so slightly, with a moving bat. He likes to adjust his hands.
Defense is great - has to be to catch Wakefield. He’ll gun guys out for you. I remember going to a game and he threw out Podsednik - that was amazing. He threw someone else out in that game as well, and the crowd went nuts. We’ll miss Belli, but you guys need to remember that even if he gives you a .250/.300/.425 line, that’s what he is, and he contributes like that, and his defense and character are worth way more than that.
December 7, 2005 at 5:36 pm
According to mlbcontracts.blogspot.com:
Loretta’s 2006 salary: $3MM. Mirabelli’s 2006 salary: $1.4MM. 2006 savings: $1.6MM.
You make yourself appreciably worse at 2B and no better at C, all to save $1.6MM? I realize that amount makes up half the difference between the original offer to Hoffman and the ultimate amount of the contract but still seems typically Padre ‘penny wise and pound foolish’.
December 7, 2005 at 5:37 pm
Rambling on a bit farther-
http://www.all-baseball.com/fi.....19433.html
This is an article titled “appreciate doug mirabelli!”
http://redsox.mostvaluablenetw.....eshome.jpg
This is a picture of Belli hitting a HR.
http://www.all-baseball.com/fi.....17679.html
A 2004 review of Belli.
Enjoy.
December 7, 2005 at 5:41 pm
I think a lot of people are counting out Josh Barfield prematurely. I heard an interview on local Mighty 1090 last summer with Tye Waller where he was describing a new approach Barfield was taking with Rob Deer in Peoria. He predicted that Josh may struggle early, but look out in the later part of the season, because he was very impressed with Barfield adaptive qualities. Barfield had a horrible start last year but batted about .330 with a decent OBP over the last 2/3 of the season. He was on a streak at the end of the season very reminiscent of Khalil’s last 2 weeks before his final call up years ago (3-4 with 2 extra base hits every game). Finally, he is an underrated fielder. Error totals dropped each year and had only a couple errors in second half last year. Bottomline: Major League confindence. I would not be surprised to see him with 2B job in Peoria. (Loretta was a great player for us, and I will miss him, though.)
December 7, 2005 at 5:50 pm
Mirabelli’s a character guy (much like Loretta - Wakefield’s personal pitcher (speaks to his cathching skills, considering Varitek is a gold glover).
If you take all his career totals and average them and extrapolate to a full 162 game season, his numbers are not bad for a catcher. What’ya think, 60/40 Mirabelli/Olivo
Seasonal Averages (per 162 games played)
YEARS 2B HR RBI BB AVG OBP SLG OPS
2.75 25 17 60 51 .241 .328 .425 .753
December 7, 2005 at 7:42 pm
What do I think? I think we better make some moves to bring in a better catcher and pray Barfield is ready to produce at league average as a 2B next year, or we’re going to really suck at both of those spots.
December 7, 2005 at 7:46 pm
For Burroughs they got Brazelton and “considerations in the rule 5 draft tomorrow” I have know idea what considerations he is talking about but thats exactly what he said.
The rule 5 draft is tomorrow (I think)… Just like the amatuer draft, teams pick inversely based on their record. I think we picked up their pick (the 2nd)… I didn’t hear the Alderson interview (thanks to Paul R. for updating me) but apparently Alderson indicated that Brazelton is low-risk swap for Burroughs. If he pans out, great, but apparently the Padre brass really wanted that 2nd pick.
December 7, 2005 at 7:53 pm
Classy quote from Mark Shapiro:
“While we are disappointed to have missed out on the opportunity to make Trevor Hoffman a Cleveland Indian, we understand and appreciate the thought behind his decision to stay in San Diego,” Indians general manager Mark Shapiro said. “We, too, appreciate it when our players make those decisions for those same reasons. At this point we will pursue other alternatives that we have always kept in consideration during this offseason.”
December 7, 2005 at 7:54 pm
San Diego had been trying to re-sign Ramon Hernandez, but he appears to have agreed to a contract with the Baltimore Orioles in a deal that probably will be announced Thursday.
***
2 extra draft picks! 2 extra draft picks! Wohoo!!!
December 7, 2005 at 7:56 pm
Here’s the link from the quote:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2251347
December 7, 2005 at 9:14 pm
The Rule 5 consideration…
I found a guy who should jump out to stat-guys like Alderson.
From BA:
Like [Angles prospect, Rafael] Rodriguez, Sadler has big swing-and-miss stuff, sitting at 92-94 mph with his fastball that tops out at 96. His curveball can also be a plus pitch, though he tends to lose his arm slot and get under the ball at times. His biggest strength is resilience–Sadler racked up 60 appearances in 2004, and took the mound 47 times at Double-A Norwich in 2005.
AA Stats:
47 G, 6-5, 3.31 ERA, 84.3 IP, 64 H, 34 R, 31 ER, 4 HR, 33 BB, 81 SO, .208/.303/.276 0.82 G/F
Good K-rate (8.64/9), solid K/BB rate (2.45/BB), low hit rate, low WHIP (1.20), not even junk-ball stuff, and all at an advanced level…
I’d almost bet money this is the Padres’ guy.
December 7, 2005 at 9:33 pm
How do people feel about Roger Clemens (not as a Rule 5 guy)? Hell, he’d fit right in with our apparent plan to get much older fast.
From Yahoo: Roger Clemens came out of retirement and helped his hometown Houston Astros reach their first World Series. Now that he’s pondering his future again, they won’t wait for his decision.
With Clemens uncertain whether he will pitch again or retire after two years in Houston — and 22 overall — the Astros declined to offer salary arbitration on Wednesday. The move means the seven-time Cy Young-winner can’t re-sign with the National League champions before May 1.
December 7, 2005 at 9:35 pm
I wondered about Clemons too, I just don’t see him going ANYWHERE other than Houston or Texas…