Padres Batting by Count, 2004-2005
Wed, Oct 19, 2005
by Geoff Young
I’ve alluded to this before, and I don’t know what to make of it, but the Padres really struggled hitting in 2-1 counts this year:
| Count | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | XBH/H | AB/HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats courtesy ESPN. | ||||||||
| 0-0 | 666 | .309 | .309 | .459 | .768 | .150 | .311 | 39.18 |
| 0-1 | 559 | .351 | .358 | .483 | .841 | .132 | .224 | 46.58 |
| 0-2 | 420 | .150 | .167 | .198 | .365 | .048 | .206 | 140.00 |
| 1-0 | 476 | .315 | .317 | .508 | .825 | .193 | .347 | 26.44 |
| 1-1 | 536 | .313 | .319 | .502 | .821 | .188 | .393 | 35.73 |
| 1-2 | 784 | .144 | .150 | .231 | .381 | .087 | .283 | 52.27 |
| 2-0 | 171 | .345 | .354 | .573 | .927 | .228 | .390 | 24.43 |
| 2-1 | 382 | .285 | .284 | .385 | .669 | .099 | .239 | 76.40 |
| 2-2 | 747 | .207 | .212 | .311 | .523 | .103 | .297 | 57.46 |
| 3-0 | 15 | .467 | .948 | .667 | 1.615 | .200 | .143 | 15.00 |
| 3-1 | 171 | .368 | .709 | .632 | 1.341 | .263 | .397 | 19.00 |
| 3-2 | 543 | .217 | .465 | .359 | .824 | .142 | .364 | 36.20 |
| total | 5470 | .257 | .333 | .391 | .724 | .134 | .309 | 42.08 |
I don’t know how this compares to other teams, but I can tell you that opponents hit .371/.369/.620 against the Padres on a 2-1 count. I can also tell you that the Pads single largest drop in production by count (excluding 3-0, which has too few data points to be meaningful) from 2004 to 2005 came on 2-1 pitches. They also struggled a bit more on 1-1 and 1-2 counts this season than last, but not to the same degree as at 2-1.
| Count | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | XBH/H | AB/HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats courtesy ESPN. | ||||||||
| 0-0 | 779 | .318 | .324 | .494 | .818 | .176 | .335 | 32.46 |
| 0-1 | 552 | .350 | .355 | .504 | .859 | .154 | .280 | 39.43 |
| 0-2 | 418 | .170 | .178 | .249 | .427 | .079 | .338 | 139.33 |
| 1-0 | 465 | .340 | .335 | .540 | .875 | .200 | .367 | 29.06 |
| 1-1 | 559 | .349 | .352 | .504 | .856 | .156 | .272 | 34.94 |
| 1-2 | 812 | .185 | .192 | .278 | .470 | .094 | .267 | 54.13 |
| 2-0 | 161 | .348 | .341 | .621 | .962 | .273 | .446 | 17.89 |
| 2-1 | 349 | .321 | .320 | .516 | .836 | .195 | .321 | 23.27 |
| 2-2 | 780 | .208 | .213 | .295 | .508 | .087 | .296 | 78.00 |
| 3-0 | 14 | .286 | .943 | .929 | 1.872 | .643 | .750 | 4.67 |
| 3-1 | 171 | .345 | .680 | .561 | 1.241 | .216 | .305 | 21.38 |
| 3-2 | 513 | .220 | .452 | .314 | .766 | .094 | .292 | 85.50 |
| total | 5573 | .273 | .342 | .414 | .756 | .141 | .312 | 40.09 |
It would be useful to know whether other teams have experienced similar yearly fluctuations. I’d like to write this off as a fluke, but it seems weird to me and I can’t help but wonder if there’s something more at work here. (On the other side of the coin, Padres pitchers have been incredibly consistent over the past two seasons in terms of how opponents have hit them by count.)
Questions we might ask include:
- Is this a legitimate phenomenon or just noise?
- If the former, to what (or whom) do we attribute it?
- Is it correctable? If so, how?
- How come I never get any dates?
I dunno. I’m just throwing stuff out there. Any ideas?
Other News
- Padres look within to fill coaching void (Padres.com). The interesting stuff is near the bottom, and has to do with center fielder Freddy Guzman: “We have to talk to our doctors to see if he’s ready,” Towers said. “He’s a guy who could be a big part of our plans. He fits the profile we’re looking for at that position.” I’m not convinced that Guzman has the bat to be a big-league regular, but I like the fact that the Padres are at least considering resources already at their disposal to meet their needs.
- Couple good off-season resources: The folks at MLB4U.com have a list of potential free agents after 2005. And Padres contract information is available at Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Some real tasty options at catcher, eh?
- In the second part of an ongoing series examing the Angels’ approach to offense, Jeff Angus interviews skipper Mike Scioscia. Once again, I’ll let Jeff’s work speak for itself. This is a terrific interview.
Is it Spring Training yet?
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
October 19, 2005 at 5:18 am
I’ve heard good things about Brian Schneider (Nationals). According to the MLBcontracts link, he’s only signed through 2005, but I didn’t see him on the FA list.
Anyone know his contract status for sure?
October 19, 2005 at 6:55 am
BA has complete organizational stats up. Here are the Pads:
http://tinyurl.com/bhqud
They’ve got BA/OBP/SLG against pitchers, as well as G/F ratio this year. Check out the G/F ratio of Paul Abraham at Elsinore and Mobile. He’s a bit long in the tooth for a prospect (plus he’s a reliever), but I wonder if he might be a useful part somewhere down the line (in a Jeremy Fikac kind of way).
October 19, 2005 at 7:40 am
Nick: According to the Washington Post, Schneider is arbitration eligible:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....01850.html
October 19, 2005 at 8:46 am
I came up with three possible reasons for the lack of 2-1 hitting:
1. Klesko and Nevin hitting balls to the warning track instead of over the wall. 2-1 is the count they would be expected to crush the ball but the homers that made it over the wall previously were getting caught at the warning track. Whether it was caused by Petco, aging or the hitting coach I don’t know but it sure seems like they hit a lot of balls to the warning track. You could probably add Loretta to the mix too.
2. Trying too hard to work a walk. Lack of confidence in one’s abilities could lead to a situation where the hitter thinks since he’s ahead in the count he should try to squeeze out a walk. I’m thinking specifically of Burroughs here. When a hitter is thinking defensively even when the count is in his favor he’s not going to do very well. At the very least he wasn’t looking to pull the ball on 2-1, he was looking to slap it to left field.
3. Pitchers exploiting a young player’s weakness. Khalil had a good year last year but has shown a tendency to chase pitches out of the zone this year. Word may have gotten around the league that you don’t have to groove one on 2-1, throw him a slider outside and he’ll wave at it. Same thing with Nady.
Interesting numbers, I’d love to see these for all of MLB. It’s amazing to me that otherwise they’re so consistent.
October 19, 2005 at 9:01 am
RE: Situational Hitting
I’m convinced that this is a team philosophy when it comes to particular counts. I may sound like a conspiracy theorist, but it seems to me that Bochy and Magadan have instilled a hitting philosophy that lends itself to impatient (read “aggressive”) hitting in strange situations and grounding into a lot of double plays.
This is something I suspected all season. I may have to look at the numebrs more closely…
October 19, 2005 at 9:15 am
This is a funny read … http://sports.espn.go.com/espn.....ons/051018.
October 19, 2005 at 10:47 am
A Tim Sullivan column on the possible departure of Towers:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....livan.html
October 19, 2005 at 9:30 pm
Yeah, I understand being aggressive when ahead in the count, but was it David St. Hubbins who said there’s a fine line between aggressive and stupid?
I’m running the numbers now for teams hitting on 2-1 counts throughout MLB. Better get a bucket.
October 20, 2005 at 12:27 am
“How come I never get any dates?”
Because you insist on wearing your wedding ring.
Can’t help you with the 2-1 counts, though it would be interesting to see a breakdown of splits off of a fastball relative to breaking balls, change ups, etc.
Medea’s Child
October 20, 2005 at 6:29 am
It looks like it’s going to be “sayonara KT:”
http://www.nctimes.com/article....._19_05.txt
http://www.azcentral.com/sport.....m1020.html
October 20, 2005 at 7:41 am
Ah, yes; the wedding ring. You may have a point there.