So I’m wearing my Ducksnorts T-shirt the other day and someone actually says, “Okay, I’ll bite. What’s a ducksnort?” I explain, and he is the better for it.

Ducksnorts. Educating the world, one person at a time. Whether they like it or not.

Anyway. We’re talking about catchers today.

Offensive Capsule

	BA	OBP	SLG	BB/PA	ISO	SEC	RC/27
Padres catchers	.288	.332	.433	.058	.145	.213	4.82
MLB rank	3	7	6	21	16	16	7
Stats courtesy of ESPN. Color key: green, top 10; yellow, middle 10; red, bottom 10.

Ramon Hernandez and Miguel Olivo saw the bulk of the playing time, with Robert Fick, Miguel Ojeda, David Ross, and Phil Nevin also strapping on the tools of ignorance at times. For the most part, Padres catchers hit pretty well relative to the big-league average in 2005.

We’ll look at Hernandez and Olivo in greater detail below. Fick and Nevin will be examined with the first basemen, while Ojeda and Ross probably don’t merit discussion.

Ramon Hernandez

Summary

Offensive Capsule

	BA	OBP	SLG	BB/PA	ISO	XBH/H	RC/27	OPS+
2004	.276	.341	.477	.081	.201	.387	5.54	116
2005	.290	.322	.450	.046	.160	.308	5.21	109
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.

Defensive Capsule

	FPct	CS%	SBA/9	Inn/PB
Hernandez	.988	.257	.782	134.3
MLB average	.992	.294	.756	154.0
Stats courtesy of ESPN. Color key: green, above average; red, below average.

Hernandez improved his batting average in 2005, but every other aspect of his offensive game deteriorated to various degrees. Part of this was due, no doubt, to injuries. How much is anyone’s guess. Defensive metrics for catchers are a little iffy, so don’t put too much stock into the numbers above. Hernandez remains a solid contributor behind the plate, but comes with risk and a presumably high price tag.

Expectations

From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:

Last year [2004] Hernandez displayed the batting eye of two years ago and improved on the power numbers of 2003. The only negative was that he played in just 111 games, due in large part to an injury sustained while trying to block home plate. Assuming Hernandez stays healthy, look for more of the same from him both at and behind the dish.

Positives

• Good offense from a premium position. Hit especially well down the stretch (.319/.355/.517 post-ASB), after returning from DL.
• Pitchers apparently like working with him, although his CERA was nothing special (4.04, vs 4.15 for entire team). Then again, who knows what value lies in CERA.

Negatives

• Spent two separate stints on the DL due to wrist injury. Played in just 99 games.
• Only adequate on defense. Threw out just 25.7% of would-be base stealers, roughly in the bottom third among catchers. Doesn’t block plate well, as we had heard from his days with the A’s and confirmed in 2004.

Outlook

Hernandez is a free agent. Thanks to the Red Sox shelling out big bucks for Jason Varitek a year ago, Hernandez likely will do well for himself in the open market. At the end of spring training, before his injuries, I speculated that he would get around $34 million for 4 years. Hernandez’ second-half offensive surge should offset most concerns about the wrist, so that estimate still seems reasonable to me.

I didn’t like the idea of 4 years for a 30-year-old catcher in March, and I don’t much care for it now. Because you never know when a catcher’s decline phase will begin. But as Keith Woolner concluded in his 2000 study:

Perhaps we should abandon the idea of catchers developing more slowly, and recognize that the physical demands of the position will tend to reduce both the length of their peaks and the length of their careers.

Also, the track record going forward of Hernandez’ most similar batters through age 29 isn’t real promising. The only guys from the past 20 years who did anything were Terry Kennedy and Tony Pena, and neither of them had much success late in their careers.

Those seem like pretty compelling reasons for a team with the Padres’ resources not to get in a bidding war for Hernandez’ services. The Mets are rumored to be interested in Hernandez (although they also are looking at the Angels’ Bengie Molina). Regardless, it’s very unlikely that Hernandez will be playing his home games in San Diego next season.

Miguel Olivo

Summary

Offensive Capsule

	BA	OBP	SLG	BB/PA	ISO	XBH/H	RC/27	OPS+
2004	.233	.286	.439	.061	.206	.457	4.06	86
2005	.217	.246	.367	.028	.150	.362	3.05	63
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend.

Defensive Capsule

	FPct	CS%	SBA/9	Inn/PB
Olivo	.983	.304	.600	98.6
MLB average	.992	.294	.756	154.0
Stats courtesy of ESPN. Color key: green, above average; red, below average.

The numbers for Olivo include his time in Seattle, where he contributed almost nothing (an alarming .151/.172/.276 in 152 AB). With the Padres he hit .304/.341/.487 in 115 AB and did a terrific job of shutting down the running game (just .470 SBA per 9 innings; not quite Yadier Molina territory, but slightly ahead of guys like Brad Ausmus and Joe Mauer).

Expectations

None. Olivo began the season as a member of the Seattle Mariners. He came over in a deal for the disappointing Miguel Ojeda, and the assumption was that two teams were swapping lousy backup catchers.

Positives

• Cost almost nothing (Ojeda and a minor-league reliever).
• Good athlete who runs well and has some pop in his bat.
• Young enough (turns 27 next July) that his second-half improvement could be legitimate.

Negatives

• Atrocious strike-zone judgment. His strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2005 was an even 10:1, and it’s right around 5:1 for his career.
• Head isn’t always in game (he cost the Pads a key game when he forgot how many outs there were and flipped a ball into the dugout against the Rockies).
• Only previous offensive success came with the White Sox in the first half of 2004, so we can’t be sure if his strong finish this year represents a turnaround or a small-sample fluke.

Outlook

Olivo is eligible for arbitration. He made $400k last year. Based on his career numbers, he shouldn’t command a huge jump in 2006. Based on what he showed the Padres in the second half of the season, he’s probably worth signing to a 1- or 2-year deal.

At worst, Olivo makes a good stopgap until George Kottaras is ready. At best, Olivo learns some plate discipline and becomes a solid big-league backstop in his own right. A lot more upside than downside here. Olivo has to be the early favorite for the starting job next year.