IGD: Padres vs Giants (28 Sep 2005)
Wed, Sep 28, 2005
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Pedro Astacio (5-10, 4.85 ERA) vs Jason Schmidt (12-6, 4.29 ERA)
Sure, the Giants have Barry Bonds. But they don’t have Ramon Hernandez. They don’t have Clay Hensley or Scott Linebrink, either, although many moons ago they did. And for once, J.T. Snow’s glove actually helped the Padres.
The Friars have five games remaining. If they can win just one of those, they’re in the playoffs. Without a second reliable starter behind Jake Peavy, it will be a mighty struggle once there. But to be in the dance is the thing. Ask folks in Oakland or Miami, to name two cities whose fine clubs are reduced to playing out the string.
Positives from Tuesday night’s game:
- After Bonds’ first-inning homer gave SF the early 3-0 lead, the Pads tied it in the bottom half off former Friar Brett Tomko. That set the tone and got the crowd into it.
- Nine runs in four innings. Where’s that been?
- Stellar work from the bullpen. Trevor Hoffman had a rough night Monday but bounced back to shut down the Giants and seal the victory. Of course, Hensley and Linebrink were huge also.
- Ramon, baby! Snow may have laid the groundwork, but Ramon wielded the spade and did the burying. The swing on his grand slam was short, swift, and decisive. And he found the short part of the park. Smart cookie; more guys should try that.
I would give a list of negatives, but the only one I can think of is Adam Eaton’s performance. Eaton has not been able to get on track since his early-season injury. I don’t know what to tell you; the guy looks like he can pitch but he just isn’t getting it done right now.
So tonight the Pads turn to Rangers castoff Astacio to see if he can keep working his magic. If the club is to make any noise in the playoffs, they’ll need him to do it just a little bit longer.
I’ll be at Petco, but as always, feel free to talk about the game or anything else that strikes your fancy. If the Pads clinch, be sure to listen for me. I’ll be the guy screaming like a crazy screamin’ dude.
I could use a good scream. You?
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September 28, 2005 at 7:20 am
Here’s hoping that Astacio can get it done tonight. This team is driving me crazy. Always on the edge . . . . nothing’s easy.
I like Giles’ quote yesterday in the Union-Tribune:
“A three game lead with six to go — I like our chances.”
I think Eaton just isn’t right — he’s reverted back to last September’s form after pitching so well early in the year. He might be in the bullpen for the playoffs. I’m thinking the rotation is:
1. Peavy
2. Williams (if you throw out the start in Coors, he’s 2-0, 2.02 ERA this month)
3. Pedro “don’t call me washed up” Astacio
September 28, 2005 at 8:06 am
I would give Hensley a turn at the rotation. And we’ll see how Brian Lawrence next start is going before playoff rotation is set.
Knowing Bochy, I’ll be surprise to see Hensley included in the rotation for playoff.
I don’t mind him coming for long relief but I don’t want one of our better pitcher sitting either.
Go Padres! I’ll be at the game tonight.
September 28, 2005 at 8:15 am
I could use a good, never mind. A Podres win will sufice.
Looks like we’ll be playing the Bud Birds. They killed us in 96, nearly ten years ago. Wow, my second child was born then. Crazy.
BIG night tonight at the ball yard. Wish I was going. I’ll be at the middle school meeting the kids teachers, then watching on TV, in my underwear, with some Andre on ice. Now that would really scare the dog.
September 28, 2005 at 8:41 am
I have my question for KT at next year’s pizza feed: After the game in which Randy Winn knocked the ball out of Joe Randa’s glove, did you make any formal requests for investigation/consequences for the umpire (Wally Bell)?
I’ll bet they won’t have the video of that @ mlb.com!
September 28, 2005 at 8:43 am
I don’t think Eaton was ever right. Early this year, he didn’t really pitch any better than the rest of his career–occasional dominance surrounded by the usual mediocrity. He had great run support and some good luck that made his numbers look good.
I agree with Nick that Williams should get the nod. Although, out of Lawrence, Eaton, and Williams, any one of them could get randomly hot Hitchcock-style come playoff time.
September 28, 2005 at 9:37 am
PM: I think that was more than we needed to know.
LM: That was a pretty bush-league move by Winn. OTOH, you do whatever it takes to win, and he didn’t get caught.
Didi: I’m still not sure the best role for Hensley. He’s been so darned good out of the bullpen, I’d be okay with he and Seanez sharing the seventh.
Also, for everyone, here’s another guy who doesn’t quite get it:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
I love how he makes excuses for the rest of the division but calls out the Padres. Not to sound bitter or anything, but I can’t believe guys get paid to write this garbage.
September 28, 2005 at 10:17 am
Yeah, PM, I have to second Geoff. You gave me shivers - and not the good kind!
After the punch in the gut on Monday night, things look brighter today. And while I’m thinking about it.. Thanks, PM, for keeping it positive after that ugly game and reminding us how much better the next win would make us feel.
Lawrence, Williams, and Astacio will all be auditioning for a first-round playoff start in these next three days. Hensley deserves the chance, but I just asked my magic eight ball if he’d get it, and the reply was, “Yeah, and I’m the Pope.” Sounds about right to me.
I’ll be at the game tonight. What are the odds on my being able to smuggle in a split of the sparkly…just in case. Let’s go, boys!
September 28, 2005 at 10:33 am
My favorite part of today’s BP postseason odds report? Okay, after the Padres 98.92465% odds. It’s that after the Dodgers have been eliminated, and after the Mets, Marlins, and Nationals are also gone, after even the A’s are done, who’s still there, clinging to playoff hopes? At a robust 0.01545% chance of making the playoff, don’t count out those Snakes!
September 28, 2005 at 10:55 am
GY … but we still have a chance to “catch” the ump(s)!!! A stink needs to be raised! Do we (ducksnorters? bloggers?) have the power to raise ANY stink?
September 28, 2005 at 11:34 am
Eaton’s performance was mildly disappointing, but even when he was racking up wins, he was still pitching at a below average level. Maybe Boch should let Peavy, Astacio and Hensley start in the playoffs.
September 28, 2005 at 12:04 pm
I’ve been as impressed as the rest of you with Hensley, especially after last night where he came up huge for 2+ innings, but it doesn’t appear he has the conditioning right now for a starting role. By 2 outs in the 7th, with his pitch count just over 30, he began to lose his control, and his velocity started to drop as well. Given the performance of every starter but Peavy, he should have ample opportunity to perform and contribute come playoff time without being given a start. Next year I’d love to see him push Lawrence/Williams/Park out of the picture.
September 28, 2005 at 12:05 pm
Sheesh! Talk about no respect, John Donovan of SI starts his list of free agents with Brian Giles, but SI posts a picture of Mark Sweeney next to it with the caption, “Brian Giles leads the National League in walks with 119.”
September 28, 2005 at 12:11 pm
Will Carroll @ BP says …
Dave Roberts’ … recent injury doesn’t appear too serious on the MRI …
… we’ll need all the health/depth we can get in the playoffs …
September 28, 2005 at 12:16 pm
Oops. Hensley pitched 3+ last night, not 2+; nonetheless, he was struggling to close out the last inning so I still don’t think he’s really suited for a starter’s role right now. But I’m so thankful he’s been part of the staff and he pitched a fantastic 3 2/3 last night!
September 28, 2005 at 12:17 pm
Pat: I’d never heard of Donovan till I read that piece the other day where he slung mud at the Pads. I’m not real impressed with his stuff so far.
Didi, dprat, and anyone else who will be at the game: We’re in section 309, row 10, seats 5 & 6. Swing by and say hey if you’re in the area. I’ll be in my underwear. Oh, I mean I’ll have a Ducksnorts cap on and probably a Lake Elsinore Storm sweatshirt.
September 28, 2005 at 12:19 pm
Oops. Hensley pitched 3+ last night, not 2+; nonetheless, he was struggling to close out the last inning so I still don’t think he’s really suited for a starter’s role right now. But I’m so thankful he’s been part of the staff and he pitched a fantastic 3 2/3 last night!
September 28, 2005 at 12:41 pm
Here’s a good read … http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....rrer=email … a reminder of how “good” the up’s & down’s of a season are … here’s my favorite part …
… to experience the night-after-night dementia of a baseball team that mixes infernal anguish with just enough delight and hope to keep us hooked. No season truly fulfills its purpose unless your team leaves you with a sense of loss, a gnawing what-might-have-been. Unless, at some fanciful point, you imagine you team in October, you aren’t really getting the full adult dosage.
–
ah, yes!
September 28, 2005 at 12:43 pm
Oops. Hensley pitched 3+ last night, not 2+; nonetheless, he was struggling to close out the last inning so I still don’t think he’s really suited for a starter’s role right now. But I’m so thankful he’s been part of the staff and he pitched a fantastic 3 2/3 last night!
September 28, 2005 at 12:45 pm
wow, sorry about the triple post there.
Geoff: I ususally like Donovan or at least find him interesting and somewhat insightful, but his east coast bias does appear to be showing.
On another note, did you see the article about Brady Clark in the USD magazine? Nice coverage of a successful alum.
September 28, 2005 at 1:41 pm
Hey gang! that was a great night indeed. I like our chances tonight, but hesitate to say too much because the old caution is creeping in and getting me superstitious. I’ll be in section 119, row 19, seats 7 & 8 with my son tonight…
September 28, 2005 at 1:42 pm
I could use a good scream too! Mabye you will hear my scream come out of Colorado.
September 28, 2005 at 3:04 pm
Hensley was a starter in the minors. He pitched 15 games and averaged over 6 innings per. Also, one of those games was a relief apperance. He struck out 3.23 per every one walk. He struck out one of every five batters faced. I lack the numbers at the moment, but his quality start percentage was strong.
September 28, 2005 at 3:22 pm
Hensley is 26, and his minor league track record before this season is spotty. Did he add a pitch or alter his approach this year?
September 28, 2005 at 4:33 pm
Eric, apparently Hensley did some work with Portland pitching coach Gary Lance that helped him a lot:
http://www.pdxbeavers.com/comm......php?id=70
http://www.nctimes.com/article.....200542.txt
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....inors.html
On another note, and not to stir the Nady pot prematurely (we have all winter for that), did you know that X has started more than five games in a row just three times this season? His max is nine in a row, when Dave Roberts was on the DL to start the season.
I’ll be busting out the breakdown of how Nady has done when given consistent PT versus when not at some point. It’s pretty interesting. Basically his slugging goes through the roof and his plate discipline completely disappears.
Anyway, we’ve got bigger things to think about right now but I thought I’d at least mention that.
September 28, 2005 at 5:18 pm
Hensley’s K/BB ratio by age:
22 (short season): 3.36
23 (single-a): 3.23
24 (double-a): 2.60
25 (triple-a): 3.23
Hensley’s K/TBF by age:
22: .250
23: .230
24: .188
25: .203
I’m really not seeing the issue with his minor league numbers. His HR/9 rates were low. So were his BB/9 rates. BABIP inflated his single-a RA and piss-poor run support messed with his (completely useless, anyway) Win-Loss record. Is he older than you’d like out of a prospect. Yeah, by about 1-2 years. It’s not like there isn’t obvious progress and it’s hard to argue with his success thus far.
September 28, 2005 at 5:36 pm
Geoff, I look forward to the X analysis. That is an issue I had considered earlier this year, but I never tried to quantify it. I do think his inconsistent playing time is a factor in his performance.
September 28, 2005 at 6:21 pm
Wow, an exciting night in Podre land. Ducksnorters should be out tonight urging the Podres on.
Ok, no more underware and Andres quips. Actually, tonight its shorts, t-shirt and a margarita or five. Go Padres!
I’m feeling the excitement here in the UC. Its a crazy year with a lot of ups and downs, but tonight could make it all worth while.
I’ve been behind on my own Padre blog (which few read, but is fun anyway) because of some crazy days with work, but I’ll be back. Can’t quit now after 157 games. Besides, now that I know underwear and champange get attention, I can adjust my message. (BTW, for you political types, its about time the Hammer got hammered. Red or blue, that guy is a crook).
Actually, I did have an interesting conversation with a Padre fan three urinals down from me at PetMall Monday night I want to write about. Oh never mind.
Damn, I hope this happens tonight. I’m actually nervious.
September 28, 2005 at 7:18 pm
Astacio gave up 2 hits, a walk, and 2 hard-hit outs in the 1st.
September 28, 2005 at 7:25 pm
Hensley’s BABIP was very high for both his A and AA seasons (age 23 and 24). Was it just bad luck for 2 full seasons?
September 28, 2005 at 8:41 pm
Can we pile it on and lock down the NL West with Randa at the plate?
Given Randa’s performance with the Padres, I’d be at least as comfortable with Burroughs at the plate.
September 28, 2005 at 9:15 pm
Eric, basically yeah.
September 28, 2005 at 9:16 pm
Davenport addressed minor league BABIP a while back:
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=3946
September 28, 2005 at 9:27 pm
Richard, thanks for that. I’m not a subscriber, so I could only read the first couple paragraphs. I was aware of the Darwinian “weeding out” concept, which is why I was wondering if BABIP numbers were as lucky in the minors as in the majors. I’m assuming the conclusion of that article was yes.
September 28, 2005 at 10:08 pm
It is finished.
September 28, 2005 at 10:11 pm
(screaming)
September 28, 2005 at 10:36 pm
That was a fun game. Seven years is a long time. I have had about 142 jobs since then.
I celebrated with some champagne, and when I say champagne, I mean, of course, Miller High Life.
My playoff rotation would be Peavy, Astacio and Hensley. Then Williams, if those guys needed some extra rest.
Bring on the Cardinals.