Never Mind Waldo, Where’s Nady?
Sun, May 22, 2005
by Geoff Young
First off, if you let Aaron Sele throw a four-hit shutout against you, it’s hard to complain about no longer being in first place. Second, does anyone know what has happened to Xavier Nady? Whatever he may have done to offend, let me apologize on his behalf. The Padres really need to get his bat in the lineup. When? Hint: The Friars are now headed to Phoenix for a series against the first-place Diamondbacks.
I couldn’t find Nady; maybe you’ll have better luck.
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May 22, 2005 at 9:13 pm
Yesterday & today were good days @ Mobile … Michael Thompson with 4-hit shutout & McAnulty with HR #4 …
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.....x_mobaax_1
… and Chick with 6 shutout innings today & McAnulty with HR #5 …
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.....x_mobaax_1
May 22, 2005 at 10:31 pm
Geoff, you just don’t get it. You have to run out your starting day line up. Stick with what works. Ignore all this namby-pamby statistics. Your lead off guy has an OBP of .336; but he has got speed. Ignore that, while fast, he has shown surprising power and might be better suited elsewhere in the line up.
And keep playing Nevin because he is a veteran. So veteran he does not need to do the BB thing. Or the batting for average thing. Or much of the power thing. He can take his K, look pissed off and walk back to the dug out. That builds team chemistry.
Whatever X did to keep him firmly not playing 1B against RHP (Nevin OPS is .602 against RHP) or center against lefties (Roberts OPS is .604 vs LHP; OBP is .302), it is good for the chemistry.
You just don’t get it.
May 23, 2005 at 12:10 am
I ought to get similarly pissed about running out Burroughs, but I like his batting stance and his swing so much, I keep thinking he is going to have to start spraying line drives. Instead he keeps rolling over grounders and doing flare fly-outs.
And his defense is very, very nice. But his throws make me nervous every single time, but, so far this season, they are right on the money. But I keep expecting him to double clutch and just chuck it about four rows up in the seats.
Unlike Nevin and Roberts, I think there is a chance the Burroughs can materially improve, so can somehow justify all his PT given his anemic offense.
Speaking of anemia, anyone notice Loretta’s draining of power? Last year slugging: .495; this year .344. He can still get on, but just not much power.
My proposed line up (RHP):
Loretta
Burroughs
Klesko
Giles
Nady (1B)
Hernandez
Roberts
Green
Pitcher
vs. LHP
Loretta
Burroughs
Klesko
Giles
Nevin
Nady (CF)
Hernandez
Green
Pitcher
Against RHP I would give Sweeney some spot starts and put Nady in CF on those days. Nevin has ugly splits historically against RHP (.250 - .300 OPS difference), but when it netted .830+ OPS, that is OK. When it is netting low .700s OPS, he needs to prove he can be productive against RHP before just giving him the slot.
Get two decent OBP guys in front the power. I think Loretta can tune his game to any slot without it hurting his game. I don’t think putting Sean in the leadoff is good, because it undercuts his need to develop power.
Fast guys don’t always have to lead off. Get on base; if you happen to be fast as well, like Ichiro or Henderson in his day, awesome. But I would rather have a sluggish .400 OBP vs. a speedy .330 any day. How is it possible that professionals in this game cannot grasp this? It feels like someone is building a house, and someone comes in and starts measuring things, and the foreman waves him off in favor of eyeballing it. It is driving me nuts, if you cannot tell.
May 23, 2005 at 12:29 am
I did some back of the envelope calculations of Nevin’s 140 AB’s of .602 OPS vs. RHP. If you gave them all to Nady/Sweeney mix, I estimated that you could get .850 OPS out of them; this translates to about 8 or 9 run difference. I am not sure of the Pythagorean implication of this, but I am guessing that is 1-2 wins. Not tons, but makes a difference, especially 1/4 the way through the season. If it keeps going, that would be 4-8 wins over the season, enough to potentially sway a season. The madness must stop.
May 23, 2005 at 10:23 am
Seems like it was a good day to be too busy to catch the game.
Anyone wanna give a summary of how Stauffer looked?
May 23, 2005 at 10:25 am
boy is sarcasm tough to read when typed. I thought you were blasting Geoff for a moment.
May 23, 2005 at 11:15 am
Especially when the sacrcasm is a bit embittered and not very funny. I do hope Nevin comes back; the trade to get him for Sheets from the Angels was brilliant. But hoping for comebacks from aging players is rarely a prudent strategy. But then again, I thought Giles was going to continue his decline from last year, and is having a powerful season. I still would take Bay and Perez back, but no crying over spilled mile.
May 23, 2005 at 11:16 am
Milk, not mile.
May 23, 2005 at 1:27 pm
That was solid, Jay.
May 23, 2005 at 2:28 pm
Jay got me thinking about who should be in the everyday lineup. Based on actual batting statistics and PECOTA projections, the starters should be:
C Ramon Hernandez
SS Khalil Greene
2B Mark Loretta
CF Xavier Nady
3B Sean Burroughs
RF Brian Giles
LF Ryan Klesko
1B Mark Sweeney
If you need a DH, it should be Nevin. As for the batting order, I’ll post a separte comment.
May 23, 2005 at 2:35 pm
Batting order based on (75th Percentile) PECOTA Projections:
2B Mark Loretta
3B Sean Burroughs
RF Brian Giles
LF Ryan Klesko
1B Mark Sweeney
CF Xavier Nady
SS Khalil Greene
C Ramon Hernandez
Batting order based on Actual Batting Stats:
2B Mark Loretta
3B Sean Burroughs
LF Ryan Klesko
RF Brian Giles
1B Mark Sweeney
C Ramon Hernandez
CF Xavier Nady
SS Khalil Greene
May 23, 2005 at 2:44 pm
Oh and if you insist on running out the “opening day lineup,” the order should look like this (actual stats):
2B Mark Loretta
3B Sean Burroughs
RF Brian Giles
LF Ryan Klesko
C Ramon Hernandez
CF Dvae Roberts
SS Khalil Greene
1B Phil Nevin
or (projections):
2B Mark Loretta
CF Dave Roberts
RF Brian Giles
LF Ryan Klesko
1B Phil Nevin
SS Khalil Greene
C Ramon Hernandez
3B Sean Burroughs
May 23, 2005 at 3:32 pm
I have the numbers to go along with those lineups at my blog, now.
May 23, 2005 at 8:05 pm
Loretta’s out until AT LEAST the All-Star Break. Noooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 23, 2005 at 11:20 pm
Strongly recommend you read this Lookout Landing story, in which Jeff deconstructs Sele’s approach. Looks like he’s fixed some very significant problems with his delivery that were very obviously tipping his pitches.
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/.....03126/7661
May 24, 2005 at 10:19 am
Thanks for the tip, Rob. That’s a very good read. However, it is still Aaron Sele. He really hasn’t done much since 2001.