Comments on: Predictions? http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2005/03/predictions.html Blogging the San Diego Padres baseball club. Established 1997. Mon, 01 Dec 2008 22:20:37 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: Richard http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2005/03/predictions.html#comment-788 Richard Sun, 03 Apr 2005 22:57:57 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2005/03/predictions.html#comment-788 Mathematical Projections for the Starting 8 based on 500 AB. I meant to do PA, but screw it, I did AB. Read as AVG/OBP/SLG (H, 2B, 3B, HR, SB, CS, BB+HBP): Roberts .258/.339/.358 (129, 17, 9, 5, 56, 10, 61) Loretta .324/.384/.470 (162, 33, 2, 12, 3, 3, 49) Giles .292/.405/.516 (146, 31, 6, 23, 8, 3, 95) Nevin .286/.355/.482 (143, 24, 1, 24, 2, 0, 53) Klesko .280/.383/.470 (140, 34, 2, 19, 4, 4, 83) Greene .250/.318/.434 (125, 32, 6, 16, 6, 1, 50) Hernandez .268/.333/.454 (134, 28, 1, 21, 1, 0, 49) Burroughs .290/.345/.374 (145, 22, 4, 4, 4, 4, 42) A couple of things: I don't trust the SB/CS numbers. Also, the Greene numbers are utter crap because of a lack of data and my refusal to waste time adjusting for improvement. Lastly, the Burroughs projections seem overly pessimistic (or perhaps my earlier guess was overly optimistic; either way, I like that Burroughs projects to hit 4 triples, hit 4 home runs, steal 4 bases, and be caught stealing 4 times). <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-788">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Mathematical Projections for the Starting 8 based on 500 AB. I meant to do PA, but screw it, I did AB.

Read as AVG/OBP/SLG (H, 2B, 3B, HR, SB, CS, BB+HBP):

Roberts .258/.339/.358 (129, 17, 9, 5, 56, 10, 61)
Loretta .324/.384/.470 (162, 33, 2, 12, 3, 3, 49)
Giles .292/.405/.516 (146, 31, 6, 23, 8, 3, 95)
Nevin .286/.355/.482 (143, 24, 1, 24, 2, 0, 53)
Klesko .280/.383/.470 (140, 34, 2, 19, 4, 4, 83)
Greene .250/.318/.434 (125, 32, 6, 16, 6, 1, 50)
Hernandez .268/.333/.454 (134, 28, 1, 21, 1, 0, 49)
Burroughs .290/.345/.374 (145, 22, 4, 4, 4, 4, 42)

A couple of things: I don’t trust the SB/CS numbers. Also, the Greene numbers are utter crap because of a lack of data and my refusal to waste time adjusting for improvement. Lastly, the Burroughs projections seem overly pessimistic (or perhaps my earlier guess was overly optimistic; either way, I like that Burroughs projects to hit 4 triples, hit 4 home runs, steal 4 bases, and be caught stealing 4 times).

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]]> By: LynchMob http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2005/03/predictions.html#comment-787 LynchMob Sat, 02 Apr 2005 16:25:23 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2005/03/predictions.html#comment-787 I predict our favorite whipping boy, Kerry Robinson, will get sent to AAA ... oh wait, he just did :-)<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-787">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> I predict our favorite whipping boy, Kerry Robinson, will get sent to AAA … oh wait, he just did :-)

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]]> By: Geoff Young http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2005/03/predictions.html#comment-786 Geoff Young Fri, 01 Apr 2005 13:47:19 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2005/03/predictions.html#comment-786 I'm going to try to make it up there. Band is playing tonight and tomorrow night; assuming I get up at a reasonable hour, I'll be there. I'll be wearing a Chin Waggers shirt and Storm cap. Or at home sleeping. ;-)<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-786">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> I’m going to try to make it up there. Band is playing tonight and tomorrow night; assuming I get up at a reasonable hour, I’ll be there. I’ll be wearing a Chin Waggers shirt and Storm cap. Or at home sleeping. ;-)

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]]> By: Eric http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2005/03/predictions.html#comment-785 Eric Fri, 01 Apr 2005 12:39:21 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2005/03/predictions.html#comment-785 My prediction was more a statement of pessimism about our mid-30s boys than optimism about Nady. But there is a little X-hope mixed in.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-785">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> My prediction was more a statement of pessimism about our mid-30s boys than optimism about Nady. But there is a little X-hope mixed in.

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]]> By: Anthony http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2005/03/predictions.html#comment-784 Anthony Fri, 01 Apr 2005 11:55:17 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2005/03/predictions.html#comment-784 I'm going, courtesy of a work outing so I don't even have to pay.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-784">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> I’m going, courtesy of a work outing so I don’t even have to pay.

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]]> By: Geoff Young http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2005/03/predictions.html#comment-783 Geoff Young Fri, 01 Apr 2005 10:47:59 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2005/03/predictions.html#comment-783 Eric: Wouldn't surprise me at all. I'm really hoping for big things from X this year. Jeff: Thanks for the info on Chick. That's too bad, although I'm looking forward to watching Thompson and Kottaras. And if Javier Martinez is healthy he could be interesting. On another note, anybody going to Elsinore tomorrow?<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-783">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Eric: Wouldn’t surprise me at all. I’m really hoping for big things from X this year.

Jeff: Thanks for the info on Chick. That’s too bad, although I’m looking forward to watching Thompson and Kottaras. And if Javier Martinez is healthy he could be interesting.

On another note, anybody going to Elsinore tomorrow?

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]]> By: Jeff http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2005/03/predictions.html#comment-782 Jeff Fri, 01 Apr 2005 08:16:21 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2005/03/predictions.html#comment-782 This doesn't have anything to do with predictions, but is a bit of a bummer for anyone who was looking forward to seeing Travis Chick pitch live up the I-15. "At Fort Wayne last season, Thompson went 9-6 with a 3.10 ERA and 157 strikeouts in 27 starts. Fellow left-handers Chris Tierney and Arturo Lopez and righties Edgar Huerta and Javier Martinez will round out the starting rotation," From the Storm roster article found here. It looks like Chick will be starting at Mobile (?): http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2005/04/01/sports/professional/23_39_353_31_05.txt<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-782">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> This doesn’t have anything to do with predictions, but is a bit of a bummer for anyone who was looking forward to seeing Travis Chick pitch live up the I-15.

“At Fort Wayne last season, Thompson went 9-6 with a 3.10 ERA and 157 strikeouts in 27 starts.

Fellow left-handers Chris Tierney and Arturo Lopez and righties Edgar Huerta and Javier Martinez will round out the starting rotation,”

From the Storm roster article found here. It looks like Chick will be starting at Mobile (?):

http://www.nctimes.com/article....._31_05.txt

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]]> By: Eric http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2005/03/predictions.html#comment-781 Eric Fri, 01 Apr 2005 08:11:50 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2005/03/predictions.html#comment-781 Xavier Nady will get more AB's than Phil Nevin, Ryan Klesko, or Dave Roberts.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-781">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Xavier Nady will get more AB’s than Phil Nevin, Ryan Klesko, or Dave Roberts.

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]]> By: Anthony http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2005/03/predictions.html#comment-780 Anthony Thu, 31 Mar 2005 08:21:45 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2005/03/predictions.html#comment-780 I'm going to be optimistic and say this is the year everything comes together. Nevin and Klesko stay healthy and adjust to the park, Giles bounces back, Burroughs hits for a little more power, Greene continues to grow and makes the All Star team, Loretta is somewhere between 2003 and 2004 form, X has a breakout year (more games in CF than Roberts too), Eaton gets his head on straight, Peavy contends for the Cy Young, the bullpen continues it's dominance, etc etc. 92-60, 1st place in the division and at least a first round win. Of course everything could go wrong too but hey, it's spring and it's time to be optimistic.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-780">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> I’m going to be optimistic and say this is the year everything comes together. Nevin and Klesko stay healthy and adjust to the park, Giles bounces back, Burroughs hits for a little more power, Greene continues to grow and makes the All Star team, Loretta is somewhere between 2003 and 2004 form, X has a breakout year (more games in CF than Roberts too), Eaton gets his head on straight, Peavy contends for the Cy Young, the bullpen continues it’s dominance, etc etc. 92-60, 1st place in the division and at least a first round win.

Of course everything could go wrong too but hey, it’s spring and it’s time to be optimistic.

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